Virus data released by Florida on Friday, June 19, 2020:

  • Yesterday cases rose 3.9%
  • New cases were a record 3822 vs 3207 yesterday
  • Total cases were 89,748 vs 85,926 yesterday
  • Hospitalizations rose 1.6% vs 1.5% yesterday
  • Percent of tests positive 11.67%
  • Deaths were 43 yesterday

Numerous Florida hospitals are reporting no or very few ICU beds available.

A newswire initially had this at 3.4% and so did we but looking at the raw numbers, it's 4.44%.

Here's the Florida curve (not including today).

Florida curve

Here's the daily net change, which includes today:

Florida daily cases

There's a lively debate about the young/old split. In Florida and a number of states the cases are skewing towards people under-35. On the face of it, that's good because they are more likely to fight it off with minimal symptoms.

The flipside is that those people are more-likely to spread it and to spread it to more-vulnerable people.

So the arc of the virus is:

  1. Outbreak, hitting elderly particularly hard
  2. Lockdown
  3. Young people go back out and get the virus again
  4. Wider outbreak as young people pass the virus more quickly and to the sick

Alternatively, if steps are taken to protect the sick and vulnerable then the outbreak simply circulates among healthier people and the unhealthy don't get it. Place your bets.