Liftoff timing still uncertain. Will be data dependent

Other comments:

  • Expects inflation to begin to firm later in the year
  • March job data signal Q1 GDP likely quite week
  • Sees Q1 GDP growth around 1% annualized.
  • Must monitor if jobs report foreshadows deeper slowdown.
  • Sees relatively shallow rate rise path after liftoff
  • Financial conditions will affect pace of tightening.
  • Downsize surprises mostly due to temporary factors
  • Consumer spending has been slower and savings are higher
  • Housing constructions sluggish despite low rates
  • Business investment is tepid
  • Could see a pick up in wage gains and can support income growth
  • Winter was 20-25% more severe than the 5 year average.

The comments are congruent with a Fed that will be data dependent.