Two forecasting teams were way below the consensus on first quarter US GDP (although still not low enough) and Reuters spoke with them to hear what they expect next.
UBS and First Trust Advisors both forecast 0.5% growth and both see a snapback in the current quarter.
From FTA:
We do not think that the first quarter report is indicative of a truly slowing economy. We think this is a one-off weather-related report.
What we like to focus on in order to look at the trend is consumer spending, business investments and home building. And despite very bad weather for the U.S., especially for building purposes in the first quarter, that portion of GDP combined grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate and that’s well within the normal range over the past five years.
From UBS:
We don’t expect the Fed to forego tapering, even with a weak GDP print. Weakness will be blamed on the weather, and indeed most late-March/early-April figures have suggested some reacceleration
