CBA / ASB forecasts and comments on the NZD
- NZD/USD is seen at 0.6900 by the end of the year
- NZD/AUD to end 2020 at 0.9325
For 2021:
- NZD/USD isexpected to trend gradually higher
- NZD/AUD to decline
Ciiting:
- ongoing resilience of the NZ economy
- not expecting the RBNZ to cut the OCR into negative territory
- New Zealand terms of trade are aso expected to remain elevated at levels close to record highs
More:
- NZD trending higher as the recent brightening in the local and global backdrops are priced in
- Forecasts and currency models don’t do particularly well during periods where currencies trend, as they do have a tendency to ‘overshoot’. For example, our short-term valuation model’s estimated ‘fair-value’ range is currently 0.6400-0.6800, but we suspect fair-value will eventually catch-up with the spot rate rather than the other way around.
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NZD weekly candles:
