Forecasts for NZ dollar lifted

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

CBA / ASB forecasts and comments on the NZD 

  • NZD/USD is seen at 0.6900 by the end of the year
  • NZD/AUD to end 2020 at 0.9325
For 2021:
  • NZD/USD isexpected to trend gradually higher 
  • NZD/AUD to decline
  • ongoing resilience of the NZ economy
  • not expecting the RBNZ to cut the OCR into negative territory
  • New Zealand terms of trade are aso expected to remain elevated at levels close to record highs
  • NZD trending higher as the recent brightening in the local and global backdrops are priced in
  • Forecasts and currency models don’t do particularly well during periods where currencies trend, as they do have a tendency to ‘overshoot’. For example, our short-term valuation model’s estimated ‘fair-value’ range is currently 0.6400-0.6800, but we suspect fair-value will eventually catch-up with the spot rate rather than the other way around. 
NZD weekly candles:
CBA / ASB forecasts and comments on the NZD 
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