Forex news for Asia trading Monday 02 February 2015
Weekend:
- China PMIs fall – manufacturing gauge back in contraction for 1st time in 2 years
- Australia press: Panel predicts RBA on hold in 2015
- Australia press: “Can RBA resist the markets’ call for a cut?”
- China PMIs for January: Manufacturing 49.8 (vs. prior 50.1) & Non-manufacturing 53.7 (vs. prior 54.1)
- Australian politics – State election a stunning blow against PM
- Will the People’s Bank of China push back more assertively against the weak yuan?
- More from Greece: Coalition’s Kammenos to propose a tax amnesty on undeclared income
- PM Tsipras says Greece will repay its IMF and ECB debt, but negotiation with EU will continue
- Greece – ECB’s Constancio says Greek emergency funding would be a decision for ECB council
- Greece – ECB’s Liikanen: No lending to Greek banks if no deal by end of February
- Greece – Greek minister wants to link debt payments to growth -Der Spiegel
- Russian government sees 2015 GDP down 3% … (& earlier, Russian central bank cuts main interest rate)
- Italy MPs elect judge Sergio Mattarella as president – seen as a boost for PM Renzi
- Greece – Lazard hired to advise on debt
- JPMorgan to pay $99.5 million to resolve currency rigging lawsuit
- Germany’s Merkel rules out any further Greek debt relief
- ECB’s Praet says QE will help fend off damaging deflation
- US stocks fall for the second consecutive month. European markets rally on ECB bond buying
- The strongest and weakest currency pairs for the month of January
- Bond buyers certainly had a good month with the US outperforming
Monday:
- RBA meeting tomorrow … fighting words from Aussie stockbroker – Cut or else!
- Roubini Global Economics says no RBA cut tomorrow, but a shift to an easing bias
- HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January: 49.7 (flash was 49.8)
- Japan – Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI for January (final): 52.2 (flash was 52.1)
- Australia – TD Securities/Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge for January: +0.1% m/m (prior 0.0%)
- Australia – Australia – CoreLogic RP Data January House price index up 1.3% m/m (prior +0.9%)
- Australia – AIG Performance of Manufacturing index for January: 49.0 (prior was 46.9)
- Australia – ANZ not expecting a cut from the RBA tomorrow, but a shift to an easing bias
- No moves from the PBOC on Sunday
- Goldman Sachs says RBA to hold tomorrow
- USD/JPY dropping hard in the early going
- Australia press – RBA determination to cut interest rates … most likely on Tuesday
Chatter about a soft floor from 1.05-1.10 in EUR/CHF
SuperBowl Sunday in the US was the opening of the FX week in Asia, but it didn’t prove much of a distraction.
The yen was very active indeed, with an early plunge in the New Zealand morning taking out stops below 117 in the USD/JPY before a substantial really throughout the balance of the session which only halted ahead of 117.90.
AUD and NZD, too, were weak in the early going, but both managed to climb back somewhat. AUD/USD again found sellers ahead of 0.7800, as it did late last week, but as we approach the Reserve Bank of Australia decision tomorrow the downside is seemingly being bolstered by some shorts profit-taking. 0.7725/30 is key for tonight, as is 0.7790/00 to the top.
EUR/CHF had strong move higher early, too, and consolidated its gains later in the session. Weekend press carried reports of a potential soft floor from 1.05-1.10 in EUR/CHF
Oil was a little weaker on the day, as was gold, but there wasn’t much in either.
Cable and EUR/USD both moved a little higher from late US levels on Friday.
