Forex news for March 19, 2015

Economic Releases and Events:

  • US initial jobless claims 291k vs 292k exp
  • Q4 2014 US current account balance -113.5bn vs -103.2bn exp
  • March 2015 US Philly Fed business outlook index 5.0 vs 7.1 exp
  • February 2015 US leading indicator 0.2% vs 0.2% exp
  • BOE's Haldane says MPC can ease again if needed to tackle low inflation
  • Fed's Evans says delayed liftoff for rates is optimal
  • France's Hollande says he will tell Greece they need to respect commitments

Fundamental and technical analysis

  • The strongest and weakest currencies as US traders enter for the day
  • Italy leads European equities at the close
  • Gold holding below old support at 1180
  • US sells $13bn 10 year tips at 0.200% vs 0.315% prior WI 0.240%
  • US bond yields rebounding in trading today. Shock from rate projection fades.
  • The strongest and weakest currencies for March 19, 2015
  • Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD tests cluster of support and bounces
  • Forex technical analysis: BOE Haldane's comments send the GBPUSD below 100 hour MA
  • Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD falls below 100/200 hour MAs
  • Forex technical analysis: EURUSD working the lower range

The EURUSD fell to new day lows in the NY trading session but most of the selling for the day was done in the Asian and European sessions. The pair found support against the 100 hour MA (at the 1.0616 level currently) and bounced modestly into the close. The 100 hour MA will be a key level to stay above in the new trading session if the buyers want to take back more control.

The BOE economist Haldane said that the risks to inflation are still skewed to the downside, that the chance of a rate cut or rise was equally balanced, and that the BOE had the option to do more QE or cut rates. The comments sent the GBPUSD below the 100 hour MA at the 1.4791, and price did not stall until reaching 1.4687. The MA remains as topside resistance on rallies.

US economic data came in close to expectations:

  • Initial Claims came in at 291K vs 292K est
  • Current Account worsened to -113.5bn vs -103.2bn but that series is not a strong mover
  • The Philly Fed index came in at 5.0 vs. 7.1 est
  • Leading index was as expected at 0.2%

Fed's Evans said that a delayed liftoff for rates was optimal. He also added that cost of premature liftoff exceeded those of a delay and that the Fed credibility suffers if forced to backtrack on policy.

The US stock market was mixed with the Dow and the S&P down. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 was mixed. European stocks were higher with the exception of the German Dax.

Good fortune with your trading....