Forex news from the European morning session 11 December 2014
News:
- SNB leaves 3-month libor target rate on hold
- SNB’s Jordan says upward pressure on franc has intensified
- Jordan says SNB does not intend to sell gold reserves
- SNB’s Jordan declines to say whether they intervened on franc cap
- SNB’s Jordan says they do not rule out the use of negative interest rates
- ECB TLTRO 2nd tender take-up EUR 129.84 bln
- ECB’s Coeure says TLTRO was within ECB estimates
- Bank of Russia raises rates by 100bps to 10.5% as expected
- Fitch says it will probably downgrade Japan if 2015 budget does not offset sales tax delay
- China will stick to prudent monetary policy in 2015
- BOE: Will cut MPC meetings to 8 per year from 2016
- IFO cuts German growth forecast to 1.5% from 2.2% for 2015
- ECB monthly report: Will re-assess monetary policy stance early in 2015
- RBA’s Edwards says employment won’t grow strongly enough in 2015 and will keep interest rates low
- ECB says oil price drop may affect other inflation components
- EU’s Moscovici says lower oil price is helping European economy
- French public deficit forecasts revised down for 2016 and 2017
Data:
- German CPI Nov final mm 0.0% as exp
- French CPI Nov mm -0.2% vs -0.1% exp
- Portugal CPI Nov mm -0.2% vs -0.1% exp
- September 2014 Greek unemployment rate 25.7 vs 25.7% exp
- October 2014 Italian industrial production -0.1% vs +0.3% exp m/m
- Shanghai Composite Index closes down -0.5% at 2925.74
- Nikkei 225 closes down -0.89% at 17,257.40
We didn’t get any real fireworks from the two key events but that didn’t seem to matter as price actions were in lively mode from the off
It’s been a blink n miss it morning that started with USDJPY disappearing below 118.00 in a hurry only to bounce back to session/Asian highs before finding the legs to take out offers at 118.50 to post 118.89 in a rush. Yen pairs followed suit
Meanwhile the pound looked a little wobbly after failing to hold above 1.5725 and we dribbled down to 1.5700, then 1.5680 before testing support around 1.5650 before getting back above 1.5690 as EURGBP fell from 0.7955 highs ( after lows of 0.7916 and wiping its feet at 0.7940) to return back to 0.7932
EURUSD fell to 1.2417 from 1.2440 after the TLTRO announcement on the lower than hoped for take-up but it wasn’t long before we were back above 1.2450 with EURJPY also making gains along with EURGBP
EURCHF however has been camped at 1.2012-15 from 1.2033 after the SNB left everything on hold and longs once again found themselves frustrated after another before-the-event buy. USDCHF initially dropped to 0.9640 before rallying to 0.9680 resistance/offers only to fall back as USD turned lower and EURCHF failed to rally.
AUDUSD had a trip lower in a hurry from 0.8330 to 0.8237 on further RBA/interest rate/iron ore price fallout/AUDNZD selling and we’ve been 70-80 since for the most part. NZDUSD rallied from 0.7780 to 0.7830. USDCAD found support around 1.1450 to head back to test 1.1500 before stalling once again
It’s been somewhat wild and distinctly woolly but, boy, there’s been some great opportunity too
