Gains are being sustained but topside resistance keeps a lid on the advances.

The AUDUSD has moved higher in trading today. The employment change for the month of February - released in the far east session today - came in at +15.6K vs. estimate of 15 K. The revision to last month showed a -14.6K loss vs -12.2K previously.A total of -30,000 jobs were revised away going back to 2013. Not so hot.

The unemployment rate dipped to 6.3% from 6.4%. The unemployment rate has been rising since bottoming at 4.8% in January 2011.

Full-time employment showed a 10.3 K gain vs. -30.9Klast month. Part-time employment rose by 5.3 K (vs 16.3K in January). Overall, the economy is still suffering. However, the AUDUSD was able to push higher in trading today.

Technically, the price has been able to extend above trend line resistance, and move above the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). However, the price surge has stalled against the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above). That level currently comes in at 0.7731. The high for the day comes in at 0.77288. Traders are leaning against this level to define and limit short-term trading risk.

Looking at the daily chart, the high for the day is also stalling in an area where there have been a number of lows in February 2015 (see yellow area in the chart below). That area is between 0.7719 and 0.7740.

If the price is to go higher from here, the 200 hour MA at 0.7731 and the 0.7740 level will need to breached.

Drilling further down into the 5 minute chart, there are some signs of slowing of the trend. However most of the gains are being maintained. For example,

  • Trend lines supporting the move higher have been broken in the last hour or so of trading, and
  • The 100 bar MA (blue line) was also broken

However, the price is currently trying to get back above the 100 bar MA and the 38.2% of the move up today has not been tested. As a result, I would characterize the market as being more neutral at this area with support at 0.7669 and resistance at the 0.7719-40 area.

The move higher is encouraging. However, like most of the other corrective moves seen in trading today, there is some work to be done to negate the longer term bearish bias.