200 hour MA stalls the rise (for now) after SNB news
The SNB news that there would be fewer exemptions from negative interest rates, sent the USDCHF sharply higher. However, the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) stopped the pair in its tracks at the 0.96502 level (the high reached 0.9652). Traders leaned against the level on the first look, which is what is expected - especially given a wide spread between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.
The US existing home sales has pushed to the price back up toward the level but so far the price is holding the line. WIth 3 hour bar tests against the level now, a move above will likely trigger stops with the 50% of the move down from the April 13 high, the next target (see chart above) at 0.96765.
Looking at the daily chart, the 0.9650 level is also a level of importance on that chart.
After the initial correction post the SNB de-peg, the price bottomed on Feb 6 before move higher. That move higher (see chart below) has the 0.96507 level as the midpoint.
Also on the daily chart, the action has sent the price back above the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below). This is the 3rd failed attempt to move below the key moving average in the last month of trading. I would expect that the 100 day MA now becomes a line in the sand for the pair (i.e. risk defining level). Look for traders to now defend that level on tests. Dip buyers should keep the downside limited. I expect a move away from the 100 day MA now (0.9763 and 0.9860 April high would be targets on the daily chart).
The move was made on the news, and the rush has led to a breather. A break of the 200 hour MA is the next bullish step to eye with support below against the 100 day MA.
