A picture tells a thousand words and the best place to start is with the daily EUR/USD chart. There is the top of the downward sloping channel that just happens to come in at the 1.2750 resistance level. We need to take this channel top out in order to take the focus off levels below 1.2400.

At present the moving averages are not doing a lot to fill me with confidence and until the 5 crosses above the 15 i feel you need to be short. Worth noting the 50 day is crossing back below the 100 day moving average. Certainly not a positive.

For a close up i have also included an hourly chart.

Stops on shorts best left above 1.2750 obvioulsy.