Forex news and economic data headlines 30 September 2016

News:

  • German economic ministry declines to comment on Deutsche Bank speculation
  • Italy's Padoan says any Deutsche Bank plan must respect EU rules
  • ECB's Visco says QE could last beyond March 2017 to impact on inflation
  • ECB's Visco says QE could last beyond March 2017 to impact on inflation
  • BOJ's Kuroda says level of JGB buying may rise or fall from JPY 80trln target
  • CHF pairs still flying high as semi official buying is noted
  • Smells like SNB smoothing again as euro continues to fall
  • Italy wants more time to sell dead wood
  • Euro tumbles as Deutsche Bank fears prevail
  • IG Group buys DailyFX for $40m
  • Reuters poll has the RBA holding rates in Oct but easing again by mid-2017
  • BOJ to maintain JGB buys of JPY8-12trln in Oct
  • Option expiries for the 10 am NY cut today 30 Sept
  • Nikkei 225 closes down -1.46% at 16,449.84

Data:

  • Q2 2016 UK GDP final revision 0.7% vs 0.6% exp q/q
  • September 2016 Eurozone CPI flash 0.4% vs 0.4% exp y/y
  • Eurozone unemployment rate Aug 10.1% vs 10.0% exp
  • France CPI Sept flash mm -0.2% as exp
  • China Q2 current account surplus USD 64.1bln
  • BOJ core CPI Aug +0.4% as expected
  • UK Nationwide house price index Sept mm +0.3% as exp
  • Germany retail sales Aug mm -0.4% vs -0.2% exp
  • August 2016 Italian PPI -0.3% vs 0.5% prior m/m
  • September 2016 Italian HICP 0.1% vs 0.1% exp y/y
  • Italy unemployment rate Aug flash 11.4% as exp
  • Switzerland KOF leading indicator Sept 101.3 vs 100.8 exp

A very busy morning that's seen DB and risk still in focus as well as the need for a bigger ice bucket for my typing fingers.

USDJPY was already in retreat from a BOJ call-round-rumour-led spike to 101.79 and fell further from the 101.25 opening levels a yen demand returned in strong fashion sending the pair to 100.75 before finding support down there once more.

DB shares opened -8% to record low levels and the EURJPY selling that we'd been seeing then became a general EUR sell-off that saw EURUSD trigger stops through 1.1200 to post 1.1168

A pause for breath ensued and we small rallies across the board equity markets pared some losses with GBPUSD getting a helping hand from better UK GDP data. The pair had posted lows of 1.2937 but ran into 1.2980 and 1.3000 sellers on the post data rally.

That theme has been repeated across the board and too many times to detail here but it's highlighted the fragility extending across all areas right now.

The other notable event was the intervention once again by the SNB as continuing CHF safe-haven demand saw EURCHF fall to lows of 1.0811. I have frequently warned about that in recent months and again this morning. USDCHF spiked from 0.9700 to 0.9768 having found a base at 0.9680 taking EURCHF to 1.0907 before sellers stepped back in.

USDCAD rallied strongly to 1.31 from 1.3145 as CADJPY selling prevailed only to fall back as CAD buyers re-entered the fray as oil prices staged a spike of their own.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD have also both been caught up in the JPY and commodity impact and early falls have seen a decent rebound

More data to follow from across the pond and ofc given it's month-end we should expect more related volatility with an eye particularly on the 15.00 GMT fix.