Forex news for US trading on June 25, 2015:

  • US May core PCE +1.2% y/y vs +1.2% y/y expected
  • May personal spending +0.9% vs +0.7% expected
  • US initial jobless claims 271k vs 272k exp
  • US June Markit services PMI 54.8 vs 56.5 exp
  • June 2015 US KC Fed manufacturing composite index -9 vs -9 exp
  • Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index +2.3% annualized
  • ECB's Praet: There's been no surprises in the economy recently
  • BOE's Shafik says don't get gloomy over low gilt yields
  • Mersch: ECB will deliver what it has announced
  • Iran unlikely to make deadline

Greece:

  • Rumour: Tsipras' threatens to quit
  • IMF's Lagarde: Other side is not there yet
  • IMF says Greece must implement reforms before talks on debt
  • France's Hollande says a deal on Greece is not far
  • Ireland's Kenny says they want to develop a system to help Greece
  • Bill Gross sees only 40% chance of Greek deal
  • Tusk told Tsipras at EU summit 'game over'
  • Unnamed Greek official cited by BBG says creditor differences have narrowed a lot

Data:

  • US 10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 2.39%
  • S&P 500 down 3 points to 2105
  • Gold down $2 to $1173
  • WTI crude down 65-cents to $59.62
  • AUD leads, CHF lags

It felt a little bit like the summer doldrums but it was more a case of markets being unsure what to do with so much uncertainty in Greece. One minute a headline sounds like a deal is coming together, the next minute they're on the brink of disaster.

The euro was frozen in a trance at 1.1200. A brief foray higher to 1.2020 and lower to 1.1180 at the options cut were both wiped out in moments and the 30-pip range around 1.1200 dominated.

Similar story in USD/JPY as the range around 123.60 tightens. There was some movement after the PCE data lifted the pair to a US high of 123.77 but it didn't last. Some selling came after a strong Treasury auction, but we're talking about a dozen pips.

Cable was more lively as it climbed as high as 1.5770 at the height of Greek worries on EUR/GBP selling. That was the apex of a move from 1.5680 starting in Europe. After London went home, there was some back and fill around 1.5740, where we finish.

USD/CAD fell, bounced and then fell some more. It's trading near a session low at 1.2317 from 1.2380. It was a holiday in parts of Canada yesterday and I think some of the selling today is unwinding an outsized move a day ago. We're back to where we started trading on Wednesday.

AUD/USD tried the upside a few times and was able to rise a couple pips above the European and Asian highs but there was no follow through on breaks of 0.7750. We're back at 0.7740.