Forex trading headlines 8 August 2014
- July 2014 Canadian employment 0.2k vs +20.0k exp
- Q2 2014 US labour costs flash 0.6% vs 1.4% exp
- June 2014 US wholesale sales 0.2% vs 0.5% exp m/m
- JPM, Goldies and Barclays cut US Q2 GDP tracking forecasts after inventory data
- UBS says sell AUDUSD on a close under 0.9250
- Only half the decline in US participation rate due to aging
- US continuing airstrikes on ISIL artillery
- France ready to jump into Iraq/Kurd Fray
- US ready to deploy forces once Iraq forms new inclusive government – White House
- Ukraine may ban gas transit to Europe as part of sanctions
- Belarus president Lukashenko says there may be talks between Russia and Ukraine
- Finland throws Russia a lifeline
- Safe haven trades ease as Russian forces return to bases
- Canada’s finance minister says monthly jobs number are volatile
- Roll up, roll up, get your orders in for the ECB’s TLTRO’s
- Pound finally erases Carney’s Mansion House pop
- European stocks were one way traffic this week
- US stocks manage to close the week up. Was this just a refresh of the trend?
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: The euro shorts keep piling in but did draghi burst their bubble?
- Heads up for Chinese data due out over the weekend
Not a bad week for volatility compared to what we’ve seen recently, and long may it last.
Canadian jobs data kicked of my shift and we got another rotten egg of a report. Just 200 jobs were added and yet again Canadians don’t know if they are coming or going with regards to working part time or full time as they changed sides yet again. USD/CAD was hovering precariously at 1.0920 when the data hit and it was a quick trip to 1.0963 after that. 1.0980/85 has been the top earlier this week and so it was again with the high coming in at 1.0984. We finish 10 pips off from there with the big 1.10 level and all its barriers standing in the way still.
USD/JPY was hanging around 102 like a bad smell and we saw a modest pop to 102.09 when the non farm productivity and labour costs data hit. A mixed bag when comparing the headline numbers with the revisions but overall not a bad report. We then took a knock down to 101.70 when headlines hit of more US airstrikes and US wholesale data disappointed some in the market. The data is a big part of the GDP calculation and so it caused some of the GDP trackers to lower their Q2 GDP numbers. Sales slowing could be cause for concern but there’s been enough good July data recently to say that this June number may just be lagging. As the day drew on we heard that the US might help Iraq deal with the rebel ISIL mob and further news that Russia and Ukraine may edge towards some sort of peaceful path helped sooth safe haven trades, the yen being one. This helped USD/JPY recover to close above 102.00
The euro was being kept on a leash by options traders around 1.3400 but the cut came and so was the leash. EUR/USD ran up to a high of 1.3433 where it then got vertigo and slipped back to close at 1.3407. EUR/GBP had a big part to play as it tried and tried to break through 0.8000. 2.5 pips it came up short by and not even GBP/USD sliding to the lowest since Carney gave it a kick at the Mansion House speech in June, could help it through the big figure. We finish up back near the lows at 1.6773
European stocks finished off a bad week worse off but the US turned around the week to post modest gains. Closing the week up might have those looking for “The Big Correction” wondering if this was just another temporary clear out.
That’s all from me today and us this week. We all hope it’s been a profitable one for you and we wish you all a good weekend.
Time to switch of the screens and get into some sports
