Forex headlines for June 12, 2014:
- BoE’s Carney says interest rates could rise sooner than markets expect
- Osborne gives the BOE powers to cap mortgage lending ratios
- US May retail sales control group 0.0% vs +0.4% expected
- US initial jobless claims 317k vs 310k exp
- Weidmann says ECB asset purchases may act like sweet poison
- US April business inventories +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
- Canadian house prices up 4.6% y/y – Teranet
- Bank of Canada says house price valuations are stretched
- April Canadian new housing price index 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m
- Q1 2014 Canadian capacity utilisation 82.5% vs 82.4% exp
- May US import prices +0.1% vs +0.2% exp m/m
- Goldman Sachs sticking to the downside in EUR/USD
- Iraq looking for help in battle with insurgents
- NATO tells Iraq “You’re on your own”
- Iran deploys forces in Iraq – WSJ
- Obama says US looking at ‘all the options’ on Iraq, rules out nothing
- US sells 30-year bonds at 3.444% vs 3.470% WI
- Gold up $12 to $1273
- WTI crude up $2.50 to $106.90
- S&P 500 down 14 points to 1930
- NZD leads, USD lags
It was one of the better days of FX moves in awhile. It started with the RBNZ rate hike, continued with Iraq, that was followed by a round of risk aversion, then a round of dollar weakness and it was capped by a jarring comment from Carney.
The overriding theme was US dollar weakness. The moves accelerated after a very strong T-bond auction and a round of risk aversion in the S&P 500. The retail sales report was on the softside but not was weak as the headline because of upward revisions to April.
Things got moving when USD/JPY broke yesterday’s low of 101.86 hitting some minor stops. A slight bounce was snuffed out by sales at 101.90 and then it was a one-way trip down to 101.61. Last at 101.74 on a late bounce.
EUR/USD flirted with an outside day on the chart. It was a sporadic but mostly steady move after a test of 1.3500 in European trading failed to make a serious challenge. The pair climbed as high as 1.3572 but selling in EUR/GBP weighed late and pushed it down to 1.3550.
The big story late was the comment from Carney. Earlier the market was thinking hikes were less likely when Osborne gave the BOE fresh housing powers, that caused a quick 50 pip move lower but bids kicked in at 1.6800 and then Carney struck like Neymar and cable surged to 1.6925. So is it 1.70 next?