Forex headlines for July 15, 2013:

  • US June retail sales +0.4% vs +0.8% expected
  • Empire Fed 9.46 vs 5.00 exp
  • May US business inventories +0.1% vs 0.0% exp
  • Analysts downgrade US Q2 GDP estimates
  • Fed’s Tarullo sees minimal disruption from higher capital rules
  • Canadian June existing home sales +3.3% vs +3.6% prior
  • Barnier says EU-US trade talks won’t weaken financial rules
  • Fitch cuts EFSF rating in follow up to French downgrade
  • Gulf Oil CEO forecasts $50 oil by year end
  • Bernanke testimony to be released early, at 8:30 ET Wednesday
  • S&P 500 gains for 8th straight day, up 0.1%
  • Gold flat at $1285
  • AUD leads, JPY lags

The US dollar took flight in Europe and hit session extremes as US trading was getting underway but a poor retail sales report reversed the moves.

EUR/USD hit some stops below 1.3000, touching a low of 1.2994, but the declines were momentary and then reinforced by the retail sales numbers. The subsequent rally stalled ahead of 1.3050 on the first push but eventually touched as high as 1.3077. So far the overnight highs of 1.3085 are capping the move. Last at 1.3064 and lots of eyes on the 200-dma at 1.3075 on the close.

The yen is the laggard on the day but Japan will soon have a chance to respond as traders return from the Marine Day holiday. USD/JPY rallied to 100.48 from 99.25 in a nearly straight line until the data hit and knocked it back below 100. Strong offers at 100.45/50 with small bids building at the 55-dma at 99.41. Last 99.73.

The Australian dollar is the best perfomer on the day, gaining about a half cent but it wasn’t a pretty move. The gains came early in Asia and the rest of the session has been a chop. From a low of 0.9036 the pair rode some of the anti-USD sentiment to 0.9098 but still below the Asian high of 0.9122. The RBA minutes are the upcoming highlight.

The Canadian dollar was in the spotlight because of some M&A and a cabinet shuffle but it was nothing to drive a significant move. Oil tried the downside in the early going, falling to $104.75 but the bidders were waiting and it stormed back to $106.32.