Forex trading headlines 30 January 2014
- US Q4 2013 annualised GDP flash 3.2% vs 3.2% exp
- US inventory buildup could weigh on Q1
- US initial jobless claims 348K vs 330K expected
- Turkish central bank says it will not tolerate any risk to price stability
- How much is Turkey bleeding?- central bank releases flow data
- RBI’s Rajan says they must prevent extreme volatility in rupee
- January German HICP flash 1.2% vs 1.3% exp y/y
- US pending home sales fall 8.7% compared to -0.3% expected
- EU’s Barroso says recovery is in sight for Europe
- Euro falls on inflation worries
- IMF says shift in global economy could be trouble for Latam and Caribbean
- Pass through of currency on inflation is lower than 20 years ago says IMF’s Werner
- Eurozone recovery promising, but risk significant says DBRS
- Details of ECB asset quality review obtained by Bloomberg
- Gold down $24 to $1243
- WTI crude up 59 cents to $97.95
- AUD leads, CHF lags
It’s been awhile since the US had some tier 1 data to mull but it wasn’t the numbers that drove trading. GDP was ok and jobless claims were soft but Russia drew a line under FX weakness and that gave the market a chance to rebound.
USD/JPY impressively held the area of support around 102.00 after the Fed and buyers stepped up, bringing the pair as high as 102.89 and last at 102.68. A rise above 103.00/50 is critical to spark some upside and hopefully we get a resolution before the weekend.
EUR/USD finally cracked after days of prodding moves to the downside that didn’t last. The catalyst was soft inflation data from Germany and less demand for safety from eurozone neighbors in Turkey and Russia. Last at 1.3552. A break of 1.3500 could spell a world of trouble for EUR.
The run of good data finally cracked in the UK and that cut down cable to 1.6445 in Europe. It bounced to 1.6520 in early US trading but sagged back to 1.6479 later.
The Canadian dollar was quiet for a change (it feels odd to write that). USD/CAD finishes the day flat at 1.1172. It prodded the downside to 1.1151 but bids there stalled the decline.
AUD/USD was a solid performer and is up to 0.8786 from a low of 0.8711. I suspect we’re see the start of some short covering ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision.
Tomorrow is month-end and that means some extra flow-driven trade, especially with holidays coming in China. Be careful.
