Forex news for Asia trading Friday April 1, 2016

  • Reuters poll: Oil analysts raise average price forecasts 1st time in 10 months
  • Japan earthquake: M6.1, no tsunami warning
  • PBOC (CFETS) sets yuan index at 98.14
  • Goldman Sachs NFP preview - more
  • Japan March Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (final): 49.1 (prelim 49.1, prior 50.1)
  • China - Caixin / Markit Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (expected 48.3)
  • People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.4585 (vs. yesterday at 6.4612)
  • China official Manufacturing PMI for March 50.2 (expected 49.4)
  • New BOJ board member wastes no time - to speak in Tokyo afternoon
  • China official march Non-Mfg PMI 53.8 (prior 52.7)
  • Japan solves its economic problems - Let's have more meetings!
  • PBOC transparency - reveals its currency positions in forwards and futures
  • BOJ Tankan report for Q1: Large Manufacturing Index 6 (expected 8)
  • What to expect from China's PMIs today
  • Australia - CoreLogic RP Data House Prices for March: +0.2% (prior +0.5%)
  • RBA meeting - data shows "fewer reasons for RBA to even be thinking about cutting"
  • Australia - Manufacturing PMI for March: 58.1 (prior 53.5)
  • Britain: CA deficit 'worst ever recorded' + Brexit = Lower GBP
  • S&P cuts outlook for China’s credit rating to negative from stable (more)
  • More from Fed's Dudley - on 'gradual' hikes, global uncertainty
  • Trade ideas thread - April 1, 2016
  • Fed's Dudley: Fears of runaway inflation have proved unwarranted
  • China's Vice Foreign Minister - no country should adopt competitive devaluation policy
  • NZ bank 12-month NZD forecasts NZD, under 0.65

An atypical pre-NFP session in Asia today with plenty of activity.

We had a speech from Federal Reserve NY President Dudley to kick us off ... but he didn't have much to add to the 'gradual pace of hikes' and 'global uncertainty' themes of Yellen's earlier in the week.

Lower tier Aussie data followed - a huge jump for the manufacturing PMI and continued slow growth of house prices.

The Q1 Bank of Japan Tankan survey results were next, and they came in disappointing, with the "large manufacturers index" coming in at its lowest level since June of 2013, for example. Capex intentions continue to slump also.

There was little disappointment, though, from the Chinese PMIs we got today. They were so good nothing could stop them busting out on the wires ahead of schedule.

OK, let me clarify, they did hit the wires earlier than scheduled, and they did come in better than recent months and beating expectations ... but 'so good' ... maybe not. There is always a lot of scepticism of Chinese data and today was no different; there has been added stimulus and positive commentary on the economy from the NPC, without these it remains to be seen how next month's figures (and beyond) will fare.

Still, today's results were better. Not that the markets thought too much of the results. The AUD popped but came off again quickly and is running along at the bottom of the day's price chart as I update. NZD too. Wait 'til I tell you about local equities though ... (see below)

The People's Bank of China strengthened the yuan against the USD again today (a small increment only), while the CFETS yuan basket is barely changed from last week (98.14 today vs. 98.16 a week ago).

USD/JPY is down around 40 points on the day. EUR/USD is 20-odd points down from its earlier session high. USD/CHF is barely changed, cable is down 40 or so points from its session high.

Gold on session lows (but not much changed) as I update, oil barely changed also.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei -3.1%
  • Shanghai -1.42%
  • HK -1.33%
  • ASX -1.96%

Still to come:

  • NFP - Goldman Sachs NFP preview - more
  • AND ... Don't forget to get your entries in to the NFP competition!

More:

  • As China Turns to Consumers, Australia Confronts End of Iron Age