Forex news for Asia trading Friday 10 February 2017

  • Japan - Tertiary Industry Index for December: -0.4% m/m (expected -0.2%)
  • Trump's first call with China's XI - backs One China policy
  • AUD surges on China data
  • China January trade balance: 51.35bn USD surplus
  • Comments from China Customs related to today's huge trade surplus
  • China January trade balance: 354.5bn yuan surplus, beat
  • Mexico's central bank governor: Doesn't think hikes will have considerable effect
  • More on the US Court upholding the suspension of Trump's travel ban
  • Economic data from the US Friday & Trump/Abe presser (& Fed speaker Saturday)
  • German central bank to remove all of its gold from France this year
  • Goldman Sachs on President Trump & the USD: We stay firmly USD bulls
  • South China Sea: Chinese and US aircraft in 'unsafe' encounter
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.8819 (vs. yesterday at 6.8710)
  • RBA cuts its near term growth forecast (more upbeat further out)
  • Australia - (December) Home loans +0.4% m/m (expected +1.0%)
  • Japan - PPI for January: 0.6% (expected 0.2% m/m, prior 0.6%)
  • Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein has a whole new word to describe his bullishness
  • US Appeals Court upholds suspension of Trump travel ban
  • IMF forecasts Australia GDP growth: 2.6% for 2017, 3% for 2018
  • US-Mexico border wall estimated to cost $21.6bn, take 3.5 years to build
  • More on FXCM selling US accounts to Gain
  • Here is the "Yen manipulation won’t be priority in Abe talks" info (ICYMI)
  • France's Le Pen says many countries are bound to leave the Euro zone
  • Trade ideas thread - the TGIF edition!
  • Updated EUR view: Weekly bias down, targets, likely range, & Europe strategy view

Yesterday I wrote in the wrap on the:

  • Signs of some moves toward political stability (or, at least, less instability) today

The flow through continued during the overnight, with a big 'attaboy' from markets (Record close for stocks) .

Stability vibes again for markets today,

1. A US court ruling on the travel ban suspension:

  • US Appeals Court upholds suspension of Trump travel ban

The fight is not yet over, though:

  • More on the US Court upholding the suspension of Trump's travel ban

2. And a Trump/Xi (US Prez/China Prez) phone call where Trump back away from his earlier threats to recognise Taiwan, affirming support for the 'One China' policy.

So far, no mention from the US Prez of China as a 'currency manipulator' either, so Xi will be chuffed with that too.

The winning continued for China today, with data showing a huge beat on January trade balance & exports (and therefore signs of stability/strength for the China economy) as well as a beat in imports. As always, concerns over the veracity of Chinese data, especially on January trade data which may well be skewed by New Year; we await February data to take a Jan/Feb together view.

The Australian dollar had a positive day; after trading in a negligible range of much of the Sydney morning (scalpers might take offense at that 'negligible' line, and I do apologise but it was a small range ....) a reasonably sanguine quarterly SoMP from the Reserve Bank of Australia helped the AUD to nudge a little higher. It moved more strongly up after the hot trade data from China.

NZD/USD played out a similar pattern to AUD/USD, but the range was not nearly as big.

USD/JPY benefitted from continuing geopol signs of stability, trading steadily higher to above 113.70 before showing some more sideways move.

EUR/USD had a small range, as did USD/CHF; both are little changed on the session

Cable gained 30 odd points from early Asia lows (late NY if you prefer) and is mid range for the day as I update.

Gold lost ground in the morning and has not recovered, down around $10 for the session here.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +2.25%
  • Shanghai +0.43%
  • HK +0.55%
  • ASX +0.94%

Still to come:

  • Economic data from the US Friday & Trump/Abe presser (& Fed speaker Saturday)

Have a great weekend all ... gonna be hot in Australia this weekend!