ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: CHF... do not adjust your monitors
Forex news for Asia trading Monday 11 February 2019
USD/CHF had a surge in early trade here in Asia. Monday morning is the lowest liquidity time of the forex week and today it saw a big run down for the Swiss franc with only Australia and New Zealand trading. Stop losses (from around 1.0030) to buy USD/CHF saw that pair run as high to circa 1.0100 (some brokers will report higher, some lower, a fact of life in forex, especially at this time of the week). CHF crosses were similarly hit.
No sooner than the highs were hit in USD/CHF than the pair began to deflate, stopping for a few minutes 1.0050/60 and thereabouts before dropping back to where we began under 1. Yeah, do not adjust your monitor.
Since then the USD has seen a little strength, pushing USD/CHF back over 1.
I cannot emphasise enough how diabolically thin liquidity can be in early Asia on Monday. I warn of it every week in my opening post each Monday. Forewarned is forearmed.
As it happened:
- USD/CHF on the move
- More on the big drop for the CHF
- USD/CHF completely reverses its up move (did I mention this is an illiquid time?)
Chart from the time of the surge and drop:
- Westpac like AUD/NZD, say AUD is undervalued against the kiwi
- The FT says the Federal Reserve appears to be 'cornered'
- China Lunar New Year holiday spending, slowest increase since at least 2011
- Weekend: May rejects pivot towards Brexit customs union compromise
- 4 reasons the USD will stay strong
- EUR 'seems unable to get any respite'
- China - US trade talks get underway on February 14
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7495
- China slowing GDP - could be down to 6% in Q1 2019
- China - Dalian iron ore opens limit up
- China about to kick off after week-long holiday, Goldman says yuan devaluation very unlikely
- Citi says expectations of RBA quickly easing are overdone
- Brexit - Britain and Switzerland signed trade continuity agreement
- Morgan Stanley on the Australian dollar … looks vulnerable (sell AUD/JPY)
- Weekend US politics - wall talks break down (yes, again), shut down looms (yes, again)
- Chimps make their own Brexit
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 11 February 2019
- Trade recommendation: "AUD and NZD: Which one is worst? We go long EUR/NZD"
- More on the NZD and RBNZ - Shadow Board sees cash rate firmly on no change
- Some NZD items about as the new week opens - RBNZ seen on hold
- Monday morning forex opening price indications
- Italian leaders take aim at central bank
- China vice-premier Liu He to join trade talk this week
Elsewhere it wasn't much of a session. NZD/USD gained 30 or so points at its highs but has subsided to be around the middle of its session range as I post. AUD/USD, too, a little better on the day but mid-range as of now (small ranges for both of these).
EUR/USD, barely changed net for the day, cable a touch lower.
USD/JPY has plodded its way up towards 110 (just under as I post). USD/CAD up a touch also. Gold lost a few dollars to open the week.
News flow was light indeed. The economic calendar for releases relevant to the majors was empty.
China reopened after the week-long holiday. The PBOC cut the CNY (against the USD, i.e. higher USD/CNY) rate. And there was plenty of catch up too for commodities in China, notably:
- Dalian iron-ore futures +8% to hit their daily limit
- Shanghai steel-rebar futures+3.2%
Still to come:
- UK data coming up today, Q4 GDP. Already irrelevant for Brexit land?
- Monday 11 February 2019 FX option expiries (10am new York cut)