Forex news for Asia trading Monday 12August 2019
- NZ PM Ardern says the NZ economy is in good shape, low rates a global phenomenon
- BoA / ML on recession - worried the US economy has run out of luck
- HSBC says "Tariffonomics is here to stay" - how it impacts FX intervention (ECB and EUR beware)
- EUR slow grind lower seen - expected to base on 1.08
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0211 (vs. yesterday at 7.0136)
- PBOC rate setting for yuan coming soon - CNY forecast while we wait
- Goldman Sachs - PBOC Q2 monetary policy report opens door to lower yuan
- NZ Treasury not keen on RBNZ QE - says Bank could cut to negative in a crisis
- UK Times reports MPs plan to force PM Johnson to seek Brexit extension
- Former (Trump) White House communications director says Trump may need to be replaced for 2020
- Here are the expected ranges for currencies in the week ahead
- TD on what'll pressure EUR
- New Zealand Card Spending for July, retail -0.1% m/m (expected +0.5%)
- Little optimism for an improvement in Brexit headlines over the next few weeks
- BNZ new forecast for the NZD/USD this year
- GBP/USD parity bus now taking passengers
- ICYMI - RBNZ dep gov Bascand says no more surprise rate announcement to come
- PBOC weekend comments - yuan volatility is due to trade war
- ICYMI - North Korea fired more missiles on Saturday. NK noted approval from Trump.
- UK PM Johnson meet Irish PM Varadkar to discuss Brexit, backstop
- Goldman Sachs - fears of US/China trade war leading to a recession are increasing
- Asia market holidays Monday 12 August 2019 - Japan and Singapore both closed
- Good morning Monday! 12 August 2019 early FX price guide
- The volatility guide to key event risk in the week starting Aug 12
- UK PM Boris's genius Brexit plan
- North Korea have fired off more missiles (Saturday morning)
- Fitch Rating confirm Italy at BBB and leaves outlook unchanged also (at negative)
News and data flow was fairly light over the weekend and during Monday here in Asia.
We had the usual Brexit headlines to give GBP a bit of impetus (although limited) - seeing GBP up from its late Friday levels early before losing its gains completely and then moving back to mid-range. All this in a high-low space of not much more than 30 points.
Early moves were towards the yen and away from 'risk', AUD/JPY dropping early in the session here. There was no specific fresh news to pin the move on, I speculated it was some US political news, but just as a guess (Scarramucci post above). USD/JPY dropped under 105.35 before steadying around 105.50. AUd/USD lows were towards 0.6770 before recovering to new session highs circa 0.6795. NZD/USD followed a similar pattern (NZ saw losses on the NZ Treasury speculating negative rates were possible.).
Once again attention focused during the session on the People's Bank of China reference rate setting for USD/CNY. In a pattern that is becoming familiar the Bank lowered the value of the onshore yuan not as much as was expected. And, once again, offshore yuan gained on the announcement as did 'risk'. EUR/USD has ended the session a touch firmer, as has USD/CAD. Gold is little changed.
Still to come:
- FX option expiry for Monday August 12 at the 10am NY cut
- AUD traders - Add these two important indicators to the agenda this week in Australia
- AUD traders - RBA speakers, jobs report coming up in Australia this week
