Forex news for Asia trading Monday 12 December 2016

Monday:

  • USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley
  • The BOJ "may soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007"
  • Platts adds: Saudi Arabia signals aggressive cuts to show commitment
  • China officials urge economic growth target around 6.5% for 2017
  • Goldman Sachs says USD Dollar rally can extend much further
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.9086 (vs. Friday at 6.8972)
  • New Zealand - forecasters revise up growth, inflation forecasts; NZD higher also
  • Goldman Sachs says oil cuts smaller than expected, implementation uncertain
  • Australia data - October credit card purchases $A25.6bn & balances for October
  • UK data - Rightmove House Prices for December: -2.1% m/m (prior -1.1%)
  • Japan data: October Machinery Orders +4.1% m/m (expected +1.1%, prior -3.3%)
  • Oil prices opening the week higher
  • BOJ Tapering - bond buying looks like its slowing, toward 70 tln yen
  • NZ news - Bill English confirmed as Prime Minister
  • China data dump coming - IP, retail sales and more
  • Italy's Monte dei Paschi to press ahead with private rescue plan ... last chance?
  • Moody's on NZ: Half-year budget shows strong public finances, robust economic growth
  • Trade ideas thread - Monday 12 December 2016
  • "Who'da thunk it?" headline: Saudi hits new oil output record in November
  • Monday morning Forex prices, early indications 12 December 2016

Weekend:

  • Villeroy: ECB sees Brexit only slightly hurting Eurozone growth
  • More from the BIS: Resilience to rising yields points to a "paradigm shift" for markets
  • Downsized FX markets may have significant implications for liquidity moving forward
  • Saudi Arabia and Iraq increased oil output in November
  • ECB's Weidmann says state involvement in rescue of Italian banks can't be ruled out
  • OIL - OPEC, non-OPEC deal signed - focus will now switch to compliance
  • Things moving quickly in Italy - new govmt soon, then elections, bank bailout
  • Greece parliament approves budget, projects strong economy growth next year
  • The top 5 economic events and releases in the week starting December 12
  • How the big players operate: Their psychology, motivation and objectives
  • Donald Trump doesn't understand foreign exchange and it's turned him into a conspiracy theorist
  • Non-OPEC producers agree to lower output by 562,000 barrels
  • CIA says Russia "intervened to promote Trump" during US election
  • OPEC's Barkindo thinks non-OPEC production cuts could be more than 600,000 bpd

USD/CAD opened lower in very early Asia trade on Monday after oil production cut agreements were sealed over the weekend. The CAD strength didn't make the headlines like the jump in oil prices did many hours later, but it was all part of the same response to weekend agreement amongst OPEC and non-OPEC being finally sealed to lock in production cuts. Going forward now we'll see how the agreement holds up, but for today it was surge day for oil prices.

Spot WTI futures

CAD wasn't the only mover today.

EUR/USD had a good bounce from mid-morning (Tokyo time) lows ahead of 1.0520, putting on 40-odd points before stabilizing somewhat (as I update). The bounce covered a soft opening slide with Italian banking woes making the weekend headlines yet again.

Cable is a little higher on the session, while USD/CHF is little changed. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both ever so slightly higher net on the session but there isn't much in it. Gold, too - little changed.

US equity index futures opened the week higher, with emini S&P futures up 10+ points at one stage before retracing and trading net lower.

The rift between Trump and the CIA widened on Sunday night with Trump questioning CIA credibility, saying findings of Russian interference in the election were ridiculous. Meanwhile a CIA official said that "The inclination to ignore such intelligence and impugn the integrity of U.S. intelligence officials is contrary to all that is sacred to national-security professionals who work day and night to protect this country." This could get messier. (Wall Street Journal for more, may be gated)

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +0.26% - It was higher earlier (up around 1.3%) to a fresh one year high
  • Shanghai -2.03% - The expected buyers didn't show up for work on Monday!
  • HK -1.12%
  • ASX +0.13%
  • Not equities, but commodity futures in China had a positive session; iron ore a leader around 5% higher on the session.

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