Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 12 December 2019
- Federal Reserve to restart full-scale quantitative easing in face of year-end repo stress
- The implications for Australia from the Federal Open Market Committee decision
- Recap of BOJ dep gov Amamiya speech - will expand stimulus if necessary
- RBNZ reweights its TWI; Yuan a winner, USD a loser
- Where to for GBP with the UK election on Thursday? Scenario analysis.
- China industry ministry official sees China 2019 GDP up 6.1 - 6.2% in 2019, 6% in 2020
- Coming up later today - China will give some outline of its economic strategy for next year
- BOJ Dep Gov Amamiya speech: "Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy" - full text
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0253 (vs. yesterday at 7.0385)
- FX option expiries for Thursday December 12 at the 10am NY cut
- More on Trump's Thursday meeting to discuss China Dec .15 tariffs
- RBA Q4 2019 'Bulletin' has been published - some useful info in it
- UK data - RICS monthly house price balance for November: -12% (expected -5%)
- Australia survey of consumer inflation expectations, for December: 4.0% (prior 4.0%)
- Latest UK election poll has Cons on 44.5%, Labs on 33.7%
- Japan - Core Machinery Orders for October: -6.0% m/m (expected 0.5%)
- GBP traders - Here is a heads up for the key times to watch for UK election results on Thursday
- A snapshot pic of the final UK election polls - Cons still ahead
- Britain Elects' "poll tracker" has the Conservatives on 42.8% and Labour on 33.1%
- More UK press front pages - 'Election on knife edge'
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 12 December 2019
- FT front page - polls cast doubt on decisive Conservative majority
- China's Global Times: Trump can't force China to yield on trade like Mexico
- New Zealand Food Prices (inflation) for November: -0.7% m/m (prior -0.3%)
- Brazil slashes its benchmark rate lending rate by 50 bps to 4.50%
- New UK election poll puts the Cons on 41% and the Labs on 36%
We are awaiting polling station opening in the UK for the election. GBP managed to add to its US-time gains during the session here, albeit only small. We had some polls early in the day that showed Johnson's Conservative Party still ahead but his likely majority diminished. The in a nutshell of where we are at is:
polls point to a small Tory majority
but a hung parliament cannot be ruled out
Exit polls will be our first indication of how the voting will play out, otherwise sometime following 2230GMT on Thursday should begin to kick off results, more:
By 0300GMT we should have a good guide as to the final result (even by 0200GMT), provided its not too close to call, of course.
News and data flow was light during the session here. There was a report from Reuters on a meeting to take place between US President Trump and advisors on the China tariffs (due for a yes or no on December 15) on Thursday (see bullets above).
Major FX maintained tight ranges on a post-FOMC session here. The USD weakness persisted although did not extend (GBP excepted).
If you are in the UK, happy voting! A summary of the most recent polls results:
And if you are in the eurozone, happy ECB meeting!
