Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 16 January 2020
- Goldman Sachs on the yuan after the phase 1 trade deal signing: 6.85 in three months
- China has released its statement on the phase 1 trade deal with the US - minor caveat?
- Huge data dump due from China on Friday - Q4 GDP and December activity
- Here is why China may rip up & quit the phase 1 trade deal (they may have to)
- 3 big doubts on the phase 1 US-China trade deal
- China December new home prices +0.35% m/m (prior +0.3%) and +6.6% y/y
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8807 (vs. yesterday at 6.8845)
- FX option expiries for Thursday January 16 at the 10am NY cut
- Chinese Vice Premier Liu He says China 2019 GDP will be above 6%
- HSBC bullish on GBP/USD
- Australian home loans data for November, headline beat
- US VP Pence says 'we've already begun discussions on a phase 2 deal'
- Japan Health Ministry has confirmed the country's first case of new coronavirus
- The Phase 1 US-China trade deal. Please read the ingredients carefully before consuming.
- UK data - RICS monthly house price balance for December: -2% (expected -8%)
- Japan PPI for December 0.1% m/m (vs. expected 0.1%)
- Japan - Core Machinery Orders for November: 18% m/m (expected +2.9%)
- USD/JPY a sell the fact on the trade deal signing - analyst says yes
- US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is bullish on the new NAFTA/USMCA
- Reuters Tankan - Japan manufacturers sentiment index -6 (unchanged from December)
- US Senate leader McConnell says the new NAFTA/USMCA will pass tomorrow
- The next step in the impeachment process of President Trump is underway. Do not waste your time.
- Citi look to politics and the economy for an upcoming 'risk off' move
- ASB says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can be patient - no rate cut soon
- New Zealand Card Spending for December. Retail -0.8% m/m (vs. expected +0.1%)
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 16 January 2020
- China vice premier Liu He says phase 1 deal to improve economy in China
- Alcoa reports Q4 revenues at $2.44B vs $2.47B estimate
- Dow record close today. Closes above the 29,000 level.
There were some small currency swings (really small, swingettes might be a better description). GBP/USD popped some stops during the very low liquidity part of the session above 1.3040. It ran 15 or so points higher before retracing and tracking narrowly sideways for the balance of the day.
'Risk' FX got a little boost after comments from US Vice President Mike Pence on Fox TV that work had already begun on the phase two negotiations. Yen lost a few points against the big dollar while AUD, NZD and even EUR gained a little. NZD/USD has held onto its gains while AUD has given back its. EUR/USD is net barely changed on the session.
And that was about it for the post-Phase One Trade Deal signing between the US and China. All very subdued. USD/CNY was set lower again by the People's Bank of China today (at the daily reference rate setting).
On the data releases today, a couple (+1) of notable points (see bullets above for data) :
- Japan machine orders were a huge beat, the first m/m rise in nearly half a year, and what a rise
- Australian housing finance commitments rose at their fastest for over two years
- China's December home price y/y growth registered its slowest for around 18 months
Regional stock markets after the trade deal (as I post):
- Japan Nikkei +0.3%
- HK Hang Seng -0.08%
- Australia ASX +0.53%
- China Shanghai Comp -0.28%
