Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 16 July 2019
- NZD traders - RBNZ inflation data for Q2: 1.7% y/y (prior 1.7%)
- Its a kiwi kinda day - NZD outlook
- Oil - US increasingly believes UAE tanker MT RIAH forced into Iranian waters
- China state planner says economy faces renewed downward pressure
- Some contradiction in China data on Monday - which to believe? Start with none.
- AUD barely changed after the RBA July meeting minutes released, down a few tics
- RBA July meeting minutes: Lower rates to hold AUD lower than otherwise
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8710 (vs. yesterday at 6.8677)
- "EUR/CHF is closing in on levels where SNB might step in"
- More US debt ceiling talks to come again on Tuesday
- EUR/USD levels - support, resistance for the session ahead
- USD to gain on expected 25bp FOMC rate cut. USD/JPY forecast range today.
- Australia: ANZ Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Confidence Index 115.8 (prior 117.6)
- EU said to be weighing concessions it could offer the UK to avoid no-deal Brexit
- More on the IMF lowering their GDP forecast for Singapore
- NZD barely changed (up a few tics) in wake of the Q2 CPI data
- New Zealand CPI for Q2: 0.6% q/q (expected 0.6%)
- IMF lowers GDP growth forecast for Singapore 2019 to 2%
- China press on trade war stamina - "US remains oblivious"
- AUD/USD levels - support, resistance for the session ahead
- PIMCO says heads up for a full blown currency war: “cold currency war, round three”
- UBS on the FOMC (July meeting): 50bps if Powell gets his way?
- Deutsche Bank have raised their probability for a 'no-deal' Brexit to near 50%
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 16 July 2019
NZD/USD traded higher (in a limited range) through the session, after CPI data for Q2 (official CPI data from NZ is once a quarter only) came in line with the median consensus estimate. The later CPI data (from the RBNZ, followed at 0300GMT) was unchanged from Q1.
NZD/USD managed to pierce its European (Monday) high and consolidate the upward momentum it has been showing since July 10.
AUD/USD was also data-driven, though not very much! RBA July monetary policy board meeting minutes were released today, showing a milder easing bias from the bank after back to back rate cuts in June and July after a muti-year hiatus. The key take away for those wondering when the next policy move will come was that the Bank will continue its monitoring of developments in the labour market and adjust monetary policy "if needed". This translates as they are on hold for the months ahead while the multi-pronged stimulus impact (rate cuts, tax cut, easier lending for housing, infrastructure spending etc.) is assessed. It would seem likely November would be the next move, if needed.
A note, though, on Thursday this week we get the next job market data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The RBA aim is to drive unemployment to 4.5%. It won't be anything near that in Thursday's data but if u/e ticks higher it'll move expectations of a nearer-term rate cut back into contention.
AUD/USD is little changed on the session.
USD/JPY was another (small) mover, trading up briefly above 108.00. Japanese markets reopened after a long weekend holiday with little impactful news for the currency today.
EUR, GBP, CAD are all little changed against the USD.
On the way …
