Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 17 January 2019
- Singapore data - non-oil exports record largest fall in 2 years in December
- More ICYMI: Trump 'inclined' to impose new U.S. auto tariffs
- German press: German govt considering ways to exclude Huawei from 5G auction
- BOJ's Kuroda's speech, topic is Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Challenges
- Citi cuts its mortgage rate in Australia bigly
- US Senator Grassley says government shutdown may delay trade talks
- Where to for GBP on various Brexit scenarios - forecasts
- PBOC Dep Gov Pan says China seeks sustainable economic growth
- Citi have lowered their USD/JPY forecast to 103 (previously at 108)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7592 (vs. yesterday at 6.7615)
- Fed's Kashkari wants to see wage growth, inflation before supporting Fed rate hikes
- 'PBOC has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down'
- Australia Home loans (November) -0.9% m/m (expected -1.5%)
- At least 130 UK business leaders are urging a 2nd Brexit referendum
- Australian January consumer inflation expectations: 3.5% (prior 4.0%)
- Fed's Kashkari says the bank has less room to cut rates in a future down turn
- UK data - RICS house price balance for December:-19 % y/y (prior -11%)
- Japan press on US moves to ban sales of chips (& other components) to Huawei
- Brexit: Corbyn says no talks with PM May until no-deal Brexit is off table
- Morgan Stanley on Brexit - do not see more clarity until early February at earliest
- Nomura on a softer Brexit, says downside risk for GBP is declining
- One for the yen uber-bulls, ex BOJ official says USD/JPY not going to 70s, only 80s!
- John Bogle, founder of Vanguard, has died
- CAD fin min Morneau on Brexit - difficult for the world economy
- US House is considering stopgap funding bill, White House threatens to veto it
- UK PM May: Has held constructive meetings with MPs, more to come
- Well, BNP don't like the AUD: going to get absolutely crucified', 'bloodbath'
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 17 January 2019
Weaker currencies in Asia pretty much across the board. AUD, NZD, GBP, CHF, EUR, CAD ... all down against the USD. As I update the yen is showing a little weakness also but it had gained earlier in the session to circa 108.85 lows and is thus little net changed on the session as I post.
Brexit related news flow was light for the session here after earlier in the week being quite active until the UK went to sleep. GBP has joined in the broader USD move.
News flow elsewhere was light also. Currency weakness has not been pronounced, ranges were small. Trade concerns surfaced again, but nothing headline-grabbing Singapore trade, the potential for more US auto tariffs, a potential delay to trade talks due to the US government shut down were all negatives but hardly smoking guns. Put 'em all together though and we got some minor movement.
Oh, Minneapolis Fed chief Kashkari said he wants to see wage growth and inflation before we will support Fed rate hikes. K is at the dovish end of the FOMC spectrum bu ... well, aren't we seeing wage growth and inflation in the US? I am sure they are not enough to prompt Kashkari to call for hikes, but his comment is open to interpretation I guess.
Still to come:
- FX option expiries for Thursday (17 January 2019) - 10am NY cut
- Due on Friday, Japanese inflation data - preview
