Forex news for Asia trading for Monday 18 January 2021
- Gold has "some upside" in Q1 but the back half of the year sees a sustained fall
- (Not FX) - The FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC due to fears of an insider attack
- Here's what happens next for the Keystone XL pipeline
ifwhen Biden cans it - BOJ meeting this week - preview (spoiler - unlikely to ease further despite virus wave)
- China activity data (December 2020): Industrial Production 7.3% y/y (expected 6.9%)
- China Q4 GDP 6.5% y/y (vs. expected 6.2%)
- Canada's ambassador to the US says "government of Canada continues to support the Keystone XL project"
- BoA forecast for higher for gold from here
- BOJ to consider allowing JGBs a wider range, but maybe not until March
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4845 (Friday's was 6.4633)
- FX option expiries for Monday January 18 at the 10am NY cut
- Iran has jailed a US businessman ahead of likely negotiations with Biden
- Singapore data: December NODX +6.8% y/y (beats expected of -0.7%)
- Canadian media report Biden to cancel Keystone XL pipeline permit on first day in office
- Goldman Sachs forecasts for EUR/USD and USD/JPY (USD weaker)
- Reuters Japan monthly tankan - manufacturers index less pessimistic but non-manufacturers slump deeper negative
- BoA investor survey shows short USD still a very popular trade
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 18 January 2021
- Yellen to be the only government official permitted to speak on the dollar
- Yellen will affirm commitment to a market-determined level for the USD rate
- Monday morning levels - indicative forex prices - 18 January 2021
Weekend:
- UK covid cases turn lower, showing variant can be controlled
- EU to set out plans to lessen its reliance on the USD
The early hours of the new week here in Asia were sedate but livened up for a while once Globex opened. US equity index futures dropped away a little and this was soon followed by USD strength across the board against major currencies. In other developments during the Asian morning news crossed that Canadian media was reporting incoming US President Joe Biden would cancel the Keystone XL pipeline project. CAD, predictably, weakened on the news. USD/CAD remains near the top of its range for the session as I update.
USD/JPY had swings, trading to highs above 103.90 (but shy of 104.00) with the early US dollar strength but has since fallen back to under 103.70 briefly - its just above there as I post.
AUD and NZD join CAD on the weaker side of the ledger for the day. EUR, GBP and CHF are all lower also but have been a little more resilient. Yen has gained against the USD on the session.
Data today - the focus was China. Q4 GDP confirmed China has had a positive year for economic growth, all other major economies around the globe have contracted. Biden has work to do if he wants a reset with China. Activity data for December shows a continued recovery for the factory sector - consumption continues to struggle though (the consumer is still on the weak side).
CAD has not shown much recovery as I post:
