Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 19 March 2019
- Fidelity on the Canadian dollar - looking for a big fall
- JP Morgan on a sign in the RBA minutes of concern over rates
- US Agr Sec - China could triple its purchases of American farm goods
- Australia 3 year bond yield drops under the RBA cash rate
- RBA Minutes - responses
- World's most expensive city - move over Singapore
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7062 (vs. yesterday at 6.7088)
- RBA minutes - 'significant uncertainties' on the economic outlook
- Australia Q4 House price index: -2.4% q/q (expected -2.0%)
- Japan economy minister Motegi says hopes BOJ keeps doing its utmost towards 2%
- CBOE abandons bitcoin futures (last contract expires in June)
- Goldman Sachs technical analysis: "The level to watch in GBPUSD is 1.3526-1.3549"
- Brexit - UK press report PM May to seek Brexit extension of 9 to 12 months
- "The strategic outlook for the CAD has shifted considerably to the downside"
- TD on Brexit and the GBP - probably headed down (the pound, that is ;-) )
- Australia weekly consumer confidence 111.9 (prior 109.5)
- Japanese financial authorities to cap leverage in cryptocurrency trading
- Brexit - more UK press: EU set to offer Theresa May 3 month date extension (or more!)
- UK press report hardline Tory Brexiteers threaten to go on strike!
- A Brexit ICYMI - UK reaches trade agreements with Iceland and Norway
- RBA's Kent speech - not on his economic outlook nor current monetary policy
- Asia forex traders - heads up for likely more intervention Tuesday
- Japan economic assessment due - government will say moderate recovery (again)
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 19 March 2019
- Brexit - UK official says meaningful vote unlikely this week (ps. We knew this already)
- NZ data - Consumer confidence for Q1: 103.8 (prior 109.1)
USD/JPY dripped lower during the session here as I update without much in the way of headline catalysts. The Nikkie was heavy, and cited also were stop losses hit for longs (ie. resulting in selling) but apart from that, not much. There was some chatter of a weaker USD going into the FOMC (UST 10 year yield dropped here, so there is something in this), based on expectations of a dovish Fed. None of these are overtly incorrect, they all sound reasonable, but I can't say I am too convinced on any of these in terms of making an ongoing impact. Soon find out though!
The Brexit headlines did not add much to what had already hit during UK/US sessions. GBP has moved a little higher.
EUR/USD, too, small up for the session.
NZ Q1 consumer confidence data came out early in the session, a dip for this after the solid bounce back in Q4. The impact was muted (its never normally much upon release though) but NZD/USD did lose a few tices in following hours, only to bounce back for a fresh session high as I update.
RBA March meeting minutes had a stale air about them, Governor Lowe had spoken extensively since the meeting, noting the importance of data now on a neutral sort of RBA. Especially jobs data (ps the latest labour market report from Australia is due this week, preview below). I will highlight this post, though ... if the RBA are going to cut they'd like transmission to be unfettered:
AUD/USD is barely changed for the day, up a few tics not only.
RBA Gov. Lowe
Still to come:
