Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 19 October 2016

China:

  • More China Q3 GDP: "three major economic engines are moving in different directions"
  • China stats bureau comments now: Economy steady, more positive signs
  • China Q3 GDP: 6.7% y/y (expected 6.7%)
  • PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.7326 (vs. yesterday at 6.7303)
  • Preview: Bank of Canada to downgrade forecasts, but pessimism overdone
  • Australian jobs report for September coming up Thursday - preview
  • Richard Branson on Brexit: "We're already seeing disastrous consequences"
  • Third US Presidential debate - one sleep to go!
  • USD broad weakness again in Asia. NZD an outperformer.
  • BoA/ML says its time to sell equities, buy real assets
  • Japan finance minister Aso says need to raise wages to escape deflation
  • More Australian data - Skilled vacancies (Sep.): -1.2% m/m (prior -0.4%)
  • Australia data: Westpac Leading Index (September): +0.06% m/m (prior flat at 0%)
  • GBP/USD forecasts from some of the FX banks. Plenty of disagreement.
  • Australian treasury Sec. Fraser - Doesn't believe will lose AAA in the next year
  • Westpac likes the NZD: "Buying NZD/CHF thus seems to be the safer bet"
  • Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 19 October 2016
  • China data yesterday - recap
  • Oil price pops higher still after private inventory data shows 'surprise draw'

Oil was a mover in late NY trade, with private inventory data (ahead of the official data Wednesday morning US time) showing a draw instead of the expected build. The oil price had moved higher during the US trading session and the data saw it pop higher still. Its managed to maintain its gain through the session here.

After this it was a bit of a wait until the focus of the session, Q3 GDP data (along with September industrial production, retail sales, and more).

While we waited we saw some broad USD weakness across the board, higher yen, EUR, CHF .... well, you get the idea.

AUD and NZD were outperformers, especially the NZD. Disappointing dairy auction results (they weren't bed, but fell well short of expectations) didn't hold the kiwi back here in Asia, it rallied 40-odd points from early session lows to test resistance above 0.7225.

Q3 China GDP data came out in line with expectations, the y/y unchanged from Q2 also. The monthly change data for industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment (September) hit simultaneously. IP data missed expectations, but the main focus was GDP.

While the GDP was in line it does seem as if the AUD market were perhaps hopeful of a beat, and positioned so. Since the data AUD/USD has given back pretty much the entire session gain. NZD/USD, too has slumped back, not quite so extensively but down 20+ points from its pre-data high.

EUR, CHF and yen have all given back some of their gains too. GBP/USD has given back of all of its.

Gold edged small higher during the session, but it too has come back to be little changed.

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +0.14%
  • Shanghai +0.12%
  • HK -0.12%
  • ASX +0.37%

Still to come:

  • Preview: Bank of Canada to downgrade forecasts, but pessimism overdone
  • Australian jobs report for September coming up Thursday - preview

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