Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Monday 2 July 2018
German politics dominated early, this was the final post, it contains links to the story as it unfolded:
Brexit::
- UK May's chief Brexit negotiator: No chance of striking a bespoke trade deal with EU
- Brexit again: record 75% of major British companies are now pessimistic
- Brexit: CBI/PwC survey, some firms "not so confident" of implementing plans by March
Other:
- New Zealand - monthly economic indicators from Treasury
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June: 51.0 (expected 51.1)
- Australia - ANZ job ads for June: -1.7% m/m (prior +1.5%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.6157 (vs. Friday at 6.6166)
- Mexico's ruling party Meade concedes defeat in election
- Monthly inflation data from Australia: 2.0% y/y (prior 2.1%)
- Japan - Manufacturing PMI, final June: 53.0 (vs. preliminary 53.1 & prior 52.8)
- BOJ Q2 Tankan: Large Manufacturing Index 21 (vs. expected 22)
- WSJ reports that North Korea expands key missile-manufacturing plant
- Australia CBA Manufacturing PMI for June: 55 (prior was 53.2)
- Australia AIG Manufacturing PMI: 57.4 (prior 57.5)
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 2 July 2018
- Trump on trade: The EU is possibly as bad as China, only smaller
- Bundesbank head Weidmann says next ECB chief must be someone who can tighten
- EU warns Trump of ‘harmful’ impact on US of car tariffs
- Monday opening FX rates - foreign exchange prices, early indications 2 July 2018
- All eyes will be on oil when the market opens for the week after Trump tweet
- China PMI data out over the weekend manufacturing dips, services up
- Video: From good to great in fishing or forex trading
Bank notes:
- Banks shifting to a little more bullish USD - snippets
- BoA on EUR/USD - forecasting 1.12
- ANZ on New Zealand and the RBNZ
There was forex movement right from the off in very early trade here in Asia, with EUR/USD down (other currencies also) and USD/JPY down (just a little).
EUR had benefited late late week on the migration deal reached at the EU summit, Merkel had been under pressure domestically, to the extent that there were questions over the stability of her government. The 'deal' dispelled the doubts on Friday, but they came back over the weekend. See the bullets above, but in a nutshell Merkel's coalition partner objected to the deal and its leader offered to resign. EUR went lower here in early trade. It recovered somewhat as it appeared the disagreement may be worked though but we are going to have to watch how this plays out today as Europe opens.
EUR/USD is mid-range (for the session) as I update.
Other currencies had weakened alongside the EUR (to varying extents), and recovered (ditto). The AUD/USD is particularly heavy though, it is on its session low as I post with little in the way of local news nor data (there were a few lower tier pieces, see above) to impact. The RBA meet tomorrow (see previews already posted) and appear likely to be on hold yet again.
China today - The PBOC set the onshore yuan rate barely changed, at a very slight appreciation in what appeared to be a cessation of devaluation pressures, or at least a relaxing of them. Over the weekend the PMI data came in mixed, manufacturing a touch softer (as was today's OPMI result also) while services up a touch.
USD/JPY made its own way today. It opened just a little down but came back well, up over 50 points and popping 111 at one stage (triggering stop buy orders). Japan's June quarter BOJ Tankan business survey showed business sentiment down a touch, but overall still solid, while capex intentions are up strongly. I don't know that the survey played too big a role in the yen movement.
Cable is a wee bit heavy as I post, though above earlier lows - there was the usual crop of Brexit related news out over the weekend - the country continues to stumble towards exit, ready or not.
Gold is down a few dollars.
Oil dropped - weekend reports Saudi to pump more output after Trump asked the King to bring down prices (see bullets above)
Still to come:
- Heads up for large FX option expiries on Monday 2 July 2018
- AUD - RBA meeting Tuesday 2 July 2018 - quick preview
- <a title="The Reserve Bank of Australia meet tomorrow, announcement at 2.30pm local time (0430GMT) TD with their outlook, bolding mine Probability Dovish (AUD - RBA meet Tuesday 2 July 2018, here is a preview
- Heads up for larger FX options (expiring Tuesday)