Forex news for Asia trading on Friday 2 July 2021
- Heads up for European Central Bank President Lagarde to speak Friday 2 July 2021
- Australia will cut international arrivals by 50% due to COVID-19 delta strain risk
- South Korea is likely to be the first Asian economy to start normalising monetary policy
- Australian housing finance data for May, investor lending surges again
- ANZ say the RBNZ may reduce QE, end purchases in August / September
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.4712 (vs. yesterday at 6.4709)
- Morgan Stanley expect the NPF (specifically the unemployment rate) to trigger a stronger US dollar
- Likely range ahead for AUD/USD revised lower, 0.7350-0.7730 (from 0.7415-0.7730)
- RBC say policy is still supportive for US equities, but its shifting
- Congestion in the global shipping industry is likely to continue well into next year
- Hiccup for UK holiday travel plans - EU regulators not recognising their Covid-19 vaccines
- US Nonfarm Payroll report due Friday 2 July 2021 - Goldman Sachs preview
- New Zealand - ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for June 114.1 (prior 114)
- AUD to underperform NZD in near term, but gain towards the end of 2021
- Here's what happens if OPEC can't reach a deal
- OPEC+ scheduled meeting July 1, now postponed to Friday.
- A big Friday coming up - NFP and OPEC+ meeting (they need more time!)
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 2 July 2021
- IMF's Georgieva says once a country gets to 50% vaccination rate it leads to significantly improved economic performance
- IMF says it still sees significant labor market slack in the US, will impact on wage and price pressure
USD/JPY popped to its highest, circa 111.65, since March of last year but overall maintianed a very tight range on the session. As I update USD/CHF is ticking a little higher also as 'safe haven' FX becomes less and less sought after. Elsewhere it was more or less flat lines right across major FX as Asian dealers sat on their hands ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report due Friday morning in the US.
News and data flow were light and, of course, of little impact.
Oil inched higher from its session lows here. The overnight news that the OPEC meeting has been postponed to Friday raised a few eyebrows. Disagreement amongst cartel members is not that unusual but discord must be greater than normal if negotiations are continuing a day after their scheduled end. The current chatter about is that the proposal is an increase in output by 400K bbl a month through to year end, but given ongoing talks there is more uncertainty than usual. The central disagreement seems to be with the UAE, who want an increased production quota, while saying Russia and Iraq the losers who would have a reduced allocation. Russia and Iraq are, as you can imagine, not happy with this.
Gold is a few tics up also.
Bitcoin ranged from highs circa $33.9K to slip back towards $33.2K.
A the same time as the NFP report is due to be releases ECB President Lagarde is speaking (see bullets above):
