Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 2 October 2019
There were plenty of late-Tuesday Brexit reports out of the UK about what Prime Minister Johnson is likely to present to the European Union on Wednesday, his proposals for a deal. In a nutshell they still involve customs checks on the island of Ireland and also a time-limited backstop, which the EU appears likely to reject (see bullets below). In summary (read from the bottom up for chronology):
- Wednesday brings UK PM Johnson's Brexit plan reveal - "a kamikaze move, says EU"
- (Unnamed) EU source on UK PM Johnson's Brexit proposals - "going to go down like a bucket of sick"
- More from the Irish foreign minister on UK PM Johnson Brexit proposal
- Brexit - Irish foreign minister says he has not seen the UK proposals yet
- UK press (Sun) - PM Johnson says he has until October 11 to reach a Brexit deal
- UK PM Johnson speech extracts - wants to get Brexit done and 'move on'
- Brexit - More on UK PM Johnson's proposal for Northern Ireland special relationship with Europe
During all this there has been only minor movement for GBP.
Otherwise:
- UK budget is expected to be delayed until after October 31
- Eyes on the ISM (services this time) later in the week - may knock USD/JPY down further
- Goldman Sachs say the RBA's own modelling suggests $200bn bond-buying stimulus will be needed
- EUR/USD technical analyst says risk towards 1.08 before next rally
- North Korean missile may have been submarine-launched
- FX option expiries for Wednesday October 2 at the 10am NY cut
- If you are awaiting the USD/CNY mid rate, it could be a while. China is on holiday until 8 October.
- Resistance on gold marked around 1488USD
- Here is a yield-differential model suggesting NZD is undervalued - forecasts
- JPMorgan on impeachment and the markets
- Gold risks remain skewed to the upside between now and the end of the year
- More from the BOJ Tankan - inflation expectations still well below 2%
- UK data - BRC shop price index for September -0.6% y/y (prior -0.4%)
- Japan says North Korean missile landed in EEZ
- Report North Korea appears to have launched another missile
- Crypto news - Visa, Mastercard, reconsider involvement in Facebook's Libra network
- RBA cash rate cut - more responses
- RBA cut the cash rate on Tuesday - more responses
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 2 October 2019
- Private oil inventory survey data shows surprise headline draw
Minor movement only was pretty much the story elsewhere across the major forex pairs. In terms of news the most notable was North Korea yet again launching a missile (or missiles), this time said to be submarine-based, or at least from a submerged platform. Which could be a whole new ball game.
USD/JPY was barely troubled by the news though and has since managed to add on just a few points net for the session.
EUR/USD, USD/CHF are both little changed.
AUD and NZD have managed to claw a few points higher, as has EUR/JPY. Gold is little changed.
