Forex news for Asia trading Monday 2 September 2019
- Weekend eastern Germany elections, exit polls show surge for far right candidates
- More China stimulus seen ahead to offset economic headwinds
- Here's a company that'll give you $100,000 to trade forex. Yes, for real, not a scam.
- NZ Treasury says Continued weakness in business confidence to weigh on domestic economic growth
- China Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI for August: 50.4 (expected 49.8)
- Australian PM Morrison says he expects Q2 GDP to be 'soft'
- China will hold a press conference on Tuesday to address issues in Hong Kong
- Australia Q2 Company inventories for Q2: -0.9% q/q (expected 0.3%)
- Australia - ANZ job advertisements for August -2.8% m/m (prior 0.8%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0883 (vs. Friday at 7.0879)
- BOJ cuts its purchases of 10-25 yr JGBs
- Australia - Melbourne Institute Inflation for September: 0.0% m/m (prior 0.3%)
- Japan Jibun Bank/Markit final Manufacturing PMI for August: 49.3
- Australia CoreLogic house prices for August: +1% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Chinese state media: "Violence in Hong Kong must end now"
- Japan Capex data for Q2: +1.9% y/y (expected +1.7%)
- Morgan Stanley revise forecasts higher for yen, CHF
- Second monthly Australian manufacturing PMI for August. This one falls.
- US "senior officials" increasingly concerned about China's treatment of activists in Hong Kong
- New Zealand Terms of Trade for Q2: +1.6% q/q (expected 1.0%)
- Australia - AiG Manufacturing PMI for August: 53.1 (prior 51.3)
- ECB's De Cos on policy - notes increasing risks, increasing uncertainty, inflation miss
- Weekend - China's State Council promise more support for the economy
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 2 September 2019
- ECB's Holzmann says is sceptical about further lowering interest rates
- China state media on the US' "utile trade war" - stop acting as a "school bully"
- Argentina imposed currency controls over the weekend - restricts buying of USD
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices 2 September 2019
- September forex market seasonals: Oil, Canada, CHF and gold
- Everyone is on the wrong side of the world population trade
- China - official PMIs for August. Manufacturing 49.5 (exp. 49.6), Services 53.8 (exp. 53.7)
- Pres. Trump: Tariffs that are set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on
- The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde stocks end higher on the week, but are down on the month
Further tariff impositions hit from both the US and China over the weekend. Protests in Hong Kong continued, as did the response of authorities there, and China ratcheted up the warnings. Brexit headlines continued, with little sign of compromise from any side. China PMIs came out over the weekend, a mixed bag of services performing in expansion while manufacturing remained in contraction. German elections saw a strong showing from populist parties but not enough to win. Argentina imposed currency controls, limiting buying of USD for pesos.
It was thus a nervous opening on Monday, mainly reflected in a >1% drop in US S&P500 emini futures. In forex the expected yen strength and AUD weakness was present in the early hours.
USD/JPY dropped early only to spend much of the session retracing, from lows under 106 it bounced towards 106.25, so the range was not large.
AUD/USD registered lows circa 0.6720 before its retrace to around 0.6735. NZD followed a similar pattern. Cable opened a touch weaker but is little changed from late Friday as I update. EUR/USD has more or less flat lined.
It was a packed session for data releases, all in the bullets above, the most notable being the private survey China manufacturing PMI coming in at an expansionary reading, quite opposite the poor official PMI released over the weekend.
Still to come:
- FX option expiries for Monday September 2 at the 10am NY cut
- RBA seen cutting rates again ... "but not quite yet". And AUD forecast.
- AUD - RBA meet Tuesday 3 September 2019 on monetary policy - preview
Reminder - Its a US market holiday on Monday.
AUD/JPY today: