Forex news for Asia trading Monday 21 November 2016

Monday:

  • Deutsche Bank's perfect trade is short EUR/USD
  • OIL - More on Putin: Sees ‘Great Chance’ of OPEC deal, Moscow ready to freeze
  • More on Goldman Sachs' AUD view: Very limited downside risk, considerable upside risk
  • NZ card spending, October: +2.8% m/m (prior +2.6%)
  • Australia - Goldman Sachs boosts forecasts for Australian dollar and GDP
  • BOJ's Masai: Expects Japan economy growth to pick up pace
  • PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.8985 (vs. Friday at 6.8796)
  • Brexit - Tony Blair comeback? Meets with George Osborne
  • ANZ on Australian dollar (AUD/JPY expected to trade within a broad range) & rates
  • Japan Trade balance for October: Y496.2bn (expected Y610bn)
  • USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley
  • Germany fin ministry says Q3 growth slowed
  • France's former president Nicolas Sarkozy has conceded defeat
  • OIL - Russia's Putin sees high probability of oil freeze
  • M5.3 Earthquake in Japan, Kanto region
  • Trade ideas thread - Monday 21 November 2016
  • Australian Treasurer Morrison: Iron ore price rise won't return budget to surplus
  • M6.7 earthquake in western Argentina
  • NZ's English - still planning tax cuts despite quake repair spending
  • Monday morning FX - 21 November 2016 - foreign exchange prices, early indications

Weekend

  • Japan Prime Minister told China he would like to comprehensively improve ties
  • Fed's Bullard: I'll take Trump at his word in independence
  • Video: What's next after the US election
  • Merkel set to announce she will stand again in next year's German federal election
  • China and Russia to press for an Asia-Pacific region free-trade area
  • Hammond says UK economy faces uncertainty over next couple of years
  • Fed's Powell sees removal of trade barriers on hold
  • Weekend oil: Exports from Iraq field drop, & Iran oil minister believes $55 possible
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to further open China's economy
  • Japan PM Abe and Putin to hold talks on December 16 - bilateral economic talks
  • CAD: A 'front-Loaded' depreciation of the loonie: where to target - Barclays
  • The Italian referendum and the issues at stake
  • UK PM May faces pressure to drop Brexit appeal at Supreme Court

USD/JPY traded higher from the early hours in Asia, through 111 before stabilising. It dipped back and gave back ground all the way to under 110.70 (briefly) but since made it all the way back up again and to new session highs as I update. The move has not run away, though, 111.20 holding the topside for now. Yen crosses are generally higher also.

EUR/USD started off strong in the early hours also, but slid bacto to under 1.0580 (briefly) before moving higher to circa 1.0610 which has topped it on the session. USD/CHF and GBP/USD had similar small sort of ranges - both are little changed.

News flow over the weekend and Monday has been light.

AUD and NZD have both had small ranges on Monday here also, and both are little net changed on the session. AUD is a touch weaker, and near session lows as I update. Its been an underperformer is attracting selling from various accounts (leveraged).

Gold is higher from Friday's finishing levels. Oil is notably higher, some 'production freeze' headlines on the wires helping it along.

The People's Bank of China weakened the yuan against the USD for the 12th consecutive day today. Yuan traders are nervous the Bank is biding its time to intervene to support the yuan. The PBOC manages the float of the CNY, so any pull back in the USD can be met with a CNY revaluation against the USD at the daily central rate setting. Something to watch out for. Meanwhile, the CNY against its basket remains reasonably steady (see bullets above).

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +0.68%
  • Shanghai +0.86%
  • HK +0.26%
  • ASX -0.02%

FX update: