Forex news for Asia trading Friday 22 March 2019
- China - Canada trade tensions persist. Canadian canola exports still blocked.
- OPEC members need to send the price of oil higher, some not at breakeven yet
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.6944 (vs. yesterday at 6.6850)
- China to impose temporary antidumping measures on some products
- Japan inflation well under target, and its going to fall even further by mid-year
- Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI (flash for March): 48.9 (prior 48.9)
- Japan - 10 year JGB yield falls to its lowest since November of 2016
- Japan finance minister Aso says Japan's economy is in moderate recovery
- Japan headline CPI (February): 0.2% y/y (expected 0.4%)
- UK PM May says will return to London on Friday to build support for her Brexit deal
- North Korea has demanded the US removes weapons from Guam and Hawaii
- EU's Tusk, Juncker press conference (on Brexit): All options open until April 12
- (adding this from the) EU on Brexit: Withdrawal agreement cannot be renegotiated
- Brexit - EU's Tusk says EU27 unanimously agrees its response to UK’s requests
- France says the only path to a hard Brexit would be if the UK refuses offer
- Australia flash PMIs (March): Manufacturing 52.0 (prior 52.9), Services 49.8 (prior 48.7)
- Brexit - Draft EU statement confirms April 12 or May 22 the dates
- Reports that if Brexit deal approved next week EU will offer extension to May 22
- Equity analysts - Mueller report could be a major & immediate driver of stock-market volatility
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 22 March 2019
- Here's what could hurt the Fed's credibility (and it just happened).
We received some Brexit news during the European evening, the EU offering the anticipated extension for Brexit. In very brief, but more at the posts above:
offers an unconditional Brexit delay until April 12. If the Brexit deal passes the UK Parliament by then, a possible further extension through to May 22.
In even more brief, what this does is postpones a potential no deal Brexit. Over to the UK parliament now for the next meaningful vote (next week, date not yet set ... stay tuned!).
GBP spend the session here gaining ground, extending its solid US-timezone performance up towards 1.3150.
The only other item really of interest (and we all knew what it'd show) was Japanese inflation data, national for February. Sure enough, CPI came in on the weak side, the headline was a miss, as was the Japanese 'core' (CPI excluding fresh food) measure. The 'core-core' measure (which is CPI excluding fresh food and energy and most closely approximates 'core' inflation elsewhere in the world) was at least in line, if still a lowly, and far, far below 2% target, 0.4% y/y. The further bad news (for the BOJ and Japanese administration more broadly) is reasonable expectations are pointing to declines in the rate in coming months.
I don't know how BOJ Governor Kuroda responding but maybe something like this?
USD/JPY traded a small range, up towards 110.90 in the wake of the data, then slipping under 110.70. Its close to the middle of that range as I post.
EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD are all little changed on the session at all.
The Swiss franc has lost some ground, not large. USD/CHF finished the NY afternoon circa 0.9915 and since popped to above 0.9930. Its just under there as I post.
Still to come:
- FX option expiries Friday 22 March 2019 for the 10am NY cut
- Canada retail sales and inflation data due Friday - preview
- Canada inflation data due Friday - preview
Next week:
