Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 23 November 2016
Intro Paragraph Text Here.
- "Central Banks and Stock Markets: a BOJ Case Study"
- CIBC on the CAD: "trend to a softer loonie"
- Sterling outperformance likely near an end says Westpac
- MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator (Nov.): 53.1 (Oct. was 52.2)
- China press: As USD appreciates, causes capital outflow from other countries
- Westpac says today's data adding to evidence the economy hit a soft spot in mid-2016
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.8904 (vs. yesterday at 6.8779)
- Moody's says Australian corporate outlook for 2017 is stable
- Australia: Q3 Construction Work Done: -4.9% q/q (expected -1.6% and prior -3.7%)
- US election - Clinton is being urged to challenge the result
- USD/JPY stops above 111.50 on this Japanese holiday session
- Trump is going to quickly put his people on board at the Federal Reserve
- CIBC "don’t expect USDJPY to move materially above the 110 threshold"
- Australian mining wages test cases - pay cut of 43% proposed
- RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent overnight speech
- UK - Hammond expected to announce rise in minimum wage for over 25s
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 23 November 2016
- OIL - private inventory data shows a decline (a build was expected)
- World bank economist says Brexit will not benefit those who voted for it
- Preview: US durable goods orders report could put focus back on economy
AUD was a solid performer again today, moving higher from its overnight consolidation around 0.74. Iron ore was up in China again today, AUD/JPY buyers prevalent, as well as AUD/NZD buying continuing. Iron ore was up 8+% in China today. Overnight Goldman Sachs raised their forecasts for the rock:
- Three-months at $65 a tonne
- 6-month to $63
- 12-months to $55
Goldman Sachs hedged a little, outlining numerous downside risks, revolving around political uncertainties in the US & China (for more, see link at bottom of this wrap).
The bid for AUD was despite poor data today (Q3 construction work, details in bullets above); the result will weigh heavily on Q3 GDP (due December 7)
- ANZ say it'll cut 0.7% from GDP
- Westpac say it'll cut 'in excess of' 0.5%
- UBS say it'll cut 0.7%
0.7440/50 is a level to watch for resistance on AUD/USD. As I update its topped for the day just over 0.7430. Expect it to do some work here, at the very least.
In other currencies moves were subdued, which was not too surprising given the Japanese holiday today (market closed). USD/JPY tracked a small range around 111.05 as the more or less mid point. EUR and CHF are little changed for the day, cable ditto. NZD was marginally more active, slightly higher (held in check by AUD/NZD buying) but slipping back as I post.
Gold is a few pennies higher, oil is little changed also.
The People's Bank of China weakened the CNY against the USD again today after a one-day respite on Tuesday. USD/Offshore yuan edging higher:
- Nikkei - holiday in Japan today
- Shanghai +0.23%
- HK +0.38%
- ASX +1.19%
Still to come:
- Here's the Goldman Sachs note that's got iron ore traders excited
- And, FastFT (gated): Iron ore futures up more than 8%
And, duelling ForexLive bloggers: