Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Monday 25 June 2018
- Morgan Stanley on the changing "4 Key elements" of the market
- CBA on the AUD this week, and on the RBNZ
- ANZ on the RBNZ, expect the next rate move in … 18 months
- Valuing Bitcoin at its marginal cost of production? Don't forget to account for this!
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4893 (vs. Friday at 6.4804)
- AUD, S&P500 falling - Trump on further escalation of trade restrictions
- WSJ report that Trump plans new curbs on Chinese investment
- BOJ's Summary of Opinions (June meeting)
- Chart of the week: the Australian Dollar …. "will inevitably lose"
- AUD for the coming week - "caught in the cross-fire"
- UK Fin Times front page features PBOC cut - 'to soften US tariff pain'
- More on the PBOC cut over the weekend (500 billion yuan "unlocked")
- BIS warns on trade tensions, but central banks should be hiking anyway
- A Happy Monday for Japanese PM Abe - his poll numbers improving
- Turkish lira on the up - President Ergodan wins the election
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 25 June 2018
- The usual weekend Brexit bickering & bitchin' continues
- Oil - OPEC plans a small production boost
- Trump says US insists other countries remove trade barriers, tariffs
- Italy wants quotas for economic migrants tied to EU funding
- China cuts reserve requirements for some banks after stock market slump
- The demo trader who opened a $5 billion position
There was a little smell of fear in the air today with renewed global trade tension concerns. We had a tweet from US President Trump warning of 'more than reciprocal' retaliations against other countries along with reports of more restrictions on China to come (these in the WSJ from unnamed sources).
The effect was a heightening of nervousness, manifesting in a more offered tone for 'risk' assets. AUD, NZD, equities (and more) all fell on the session to open the week. (Note - Chinese indices did manage a gain after the PBOC cut the RRR on the weekend).
Over the weekend we got a cut (in the RRR) from China, followed up during the day by the PBOC again cutting the value of the (onshore) yuan (at the daily setting of the reference rate). While these moves will have a stimulus effect, they are also being read as aggressive actions from China on threats to trade. Both interpretations are correct IMO, but whether the market takes them as a positive and hopeful sign, or one of fear is the question. Today it was fear trumping hope.
As I update AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both close to their session low. USD/JPY, too, has fallen, flows into yen weighing heavily on AUD and NZD yen crosses.
EUR, too, is lower on the session.
Still to come:
