Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 29 January 2019
- Brexit - Knife-edge House of Commons votes expected on Tuesday
- China foreign ministry urges US to drop arrest warrant against Huawei exec.
- Australia - PM Morrison announces immediate increase in asset write off limit
- China - US indictments against Huawei are unfair and immoral
- RBA monetary policy board member Harper says he expects next rate move up
- NAB, ANZ on "Australian business conditions plunged in December"
- Japan cut its assessment of exports in January, for the first time in three months
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7356 (vs. yesterday at 6.7472 )
- AUD down on very poor business survey results in Australia
- Australia NAB Dec. business confidence 3 (prior 3) and business conditions 2 (prior 11)
- Reuters: Chevron to buy Texas refinery from Brazil's Petrobras
- AEP: "Italy's credit crunch deepens as recession stalks Europe"
- US wires report 'big divides' remain in US China trade talks
- China press report Trump to meet with China Vice Premier on trade this week
- More on the NZ trade balance, annual figure highest deficit in 11 years
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 29 January 2019
- UK statement - If no deal Brexit UK will seek to end free movement as soon as possible
- New Zealand trade balance for December: +264m (expected surplus 150m)
- US confirms seeking extradition of Huawei executive, charges are financial fraud
- Pelosi has (finally) invited Trump to give his SOTU address - February 5
A quick scan across the charts of the majors for the session here shows very little net change. And not a real lot of movement either.
AUD/USD had a sharp drop, of a limited extent, on a monthly survey showing a big drop in business conditions for December. Business confidence had been soft for much of 2018 but conditions (a more objective measure) had offset this by staying fairly solid. Not any more. Today's result for conditions is the worst since 2014 and places it well under its long-run average. AUD/USD fell from around 0.7165 to (briefly) under 0.7140 before gaining back to cover its fall. Its circa 0.7160 as I update. Comments from an RBA board member that he still sees the next rate move as higher helped to stabilise it somewhat. Note that Harper's comments are his own personal view. The RBA meeting is next Tuesday (February 5).
NZD/USD traded a similar pattern to AUD but is a little net higher than where it began the session. Trade balance data for December showed larger than expected surplus and exports.
USD/CAD gained a little but has come back to be not much changed. USD/JPY is down a touch for the session. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF - little to report for any of these.
Huawei is back in the headlines, the US confirming it is seeling extradition of the Candain-held executive. China is objecting. US-China trade talks resume this week, this may be a muddying factor. More on both of these in the bullets, above.
Still to come:
- FX option expiries for Tuesday 29 January 2019 10am NY cut
- Australia inflation data due Wednesday - preview of Q4 CPI
- January FOMC meeting preview, what to expect and forex implications
- MS on potential significant FX implications from the FOMC this week
- Ahead of China PMIs - early indications of slowing for an 8th month
