Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Tuesday 4 December 2018
- Did you see the RBA inflation projection? Are they serious?
- RBA announce no change to cash rate target, as expected, but here is what did change
- RBA announce cash rate remains on hold at 1.5%, as expected
- Still awaiting clarity on what China is doing with tariffs on US car imports
- PBOC Governor Yi Gang says will keep monetary policy flexible, adjust appropriately
- Citi on the US stockmarket: 'now we feel more upbeat when others are less sanguine'
- JP Morgan bullish US stocks: "the pain trade is on the upside"
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8939 (vs. yesterday at 6.9431)
- China outlook for 2019 & 2020 - gradual slowdown to persist (yuan forecasts also)
- More on the China press story saying yuan unlikely to weaken beyond 7 in 2018
- Australia data - 'Net exports as a % of GDP' for Q3: 0.4% (expected 0.3%)
- UK data: retail sales, consumer spending
- Goldman Sachs on gold, forecasts it higher
- China press says the country is considering lowering tariffs on US car imports
- Barclays on the euro, see downward pressure on EUR/USD this week
- China press reports yuan unlikely to weaken beyond 7 in 2018
- Full text of Fed Chair Powell speech (December 3) - comments on strong economy
- NZD traders - heads up for the GDT dairy auction due during London time Tuesday
- Australia - ANZ /Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer sentiment: 119.5 (prior 118.6)
- White House Economic advisor Kudlow incorrect on China - Us ceasefire timing
- US November auto production 17.4m vs 17.2m expected
- The two themes supporting the recent AUD rally will not last
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 4 December 2018
USD/JPY dropped 30-some points in half an hour here in Asia today. This is a sharp move for Asia. The move came after China (the PBOC) revalued the onshore yuan sharply, from 6.9431 on Monday (for USD/CNY) to 6.8939 at the reference rate setting Tuesday. This is the biggest rise for CNY against the USD at the setting since June of 2017. US Treasury moves also played a role, yields falling again here today. Yield on the 10 year fell to its lowest since mid-September while spreads (2/10, but 2/others also) tightened. Moves such as this are indicative of the market looking for a pause from the Fed, and/or a US recession. I'll leave it up to you, traders, to decide how valid this interpretation is.
Other currencies edged a little higher against the USD also, EUR, CAD, CHF, GBP, AUD and NZD (up 30 points on the session). News and data flow was light.
We did get the final monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia for the year, leaving the cash rate target unchanged at 1.5%, as was unanimously expected. The Bank next meet on policy in February (January there is no meeting - beach time) and left us today with perhaps some overly optimistic forecasts in the statement accompanying the decision. AUD/USD, however, liked it, from lows on the session circa 0.7350 its above 0.7370 as I update.
Still to come:
