Forex news for Asia trading on Monday 5 July 2021
- Supply bottlenecks an inflation driver? "Global shipping costs are not showing any signs of abating"
- Central banks said to be returning to buying gold, moving out of the USD
- China Caixin/Markit PMI for June Services 50.3 (vs. expected 55.7) Composite 50.6 (vs. prior 53.8)
- ANZ Australian Job Ads +3.0% m/m in June
- Australia Retail Sales for May +0.4% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Australia Building Approvals for May -7.1% m/m (expected -5.0%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.4695 (vs. Friday at 6.4712)
- Australia - Melbourne Institute monthly CPI inflation for June 3.0% y/y vs. 3.3% prior
- New Zealand - ANZ Commodity Price index for June: 0.8% m/m (prior +1.3%)
- Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says won't hesitate to ease further if necessary
- RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 6 July 2021 - preview
- Japan - Jibun Bank/Markit Services 48.0 and Composite 48.9 PMI (final) for June
- Bitcoin - Federal Reserve Chair Powell met with Coinbase CEO (back in May)
- Fed and ECB events to keep an eye on this week
- What the Fed can learn from the People's Bank of China (and the Bank of Japan)
- Australia - Markit Services 56.8 and Composite 56.7 PMI for June (final)
- Saudi Arabia's energy minister says to UAE he wants "compromise and rationality" on OPEC oil deal
- Australia AiG Construction PMI for June: 55.5 (prior 58.3)
- Oil giant Vitol expects oil prices to continue higher - more demand to outrun supply increases
- Link to full interview with ECB's Knot - flags phase out of coronavirus support beginning March 2022
- Weekend - ECB's Schnabel says an overshoot of inflation is necessary and proportionate
- Weekend - ECB's Knot is wary of the potential for accelerating inflation
- Weekend news - France wants joint EU debt issuance, Germany does not
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 5 July 2021
- Saudi energy minister comments ahead of Monday's continued OPEC talks
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex rates - 5 July 2021
- Heads up weekend news - OPEC+ talks will resume on Monday
Yet again we await developments from OPEC+ as last week's Thursday meeting stretches into Monday. If you have missed developments an agreement to increase production (by 400K barrels a month from August to December inclusive) is being blocked by objections from the UAE (the country wants a greater allocation of output). Negotiations will continue today (Monday) (see bullets above for more). Expectations of the outcome span a wide spectrum from those seeing a deal along the lines of the +400K barrels/month proposal eventually being agreed, to a fall-back position of the current agreement remaining in place, to more extreme outcomes such as the UAE leaving the cartel, perhaps with others, to complete dissolution of OPEC (a really extreme outcome). Oil prices are more or less treading water awaiting today's outcome.
On the forex front its been a day of tight ranges across major FX. In general the USD has recovered just a little of its Friday post-NFP loss but the extent of moves is tiny.
The news front was fairly quiet but we did get a barrage of data from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and China. See the bullets above for the details, and of course given the ranges the impact was barely noticeable.
US markets will be closed Monday for the (observance) Independence Day holiday.
Bitcoin with a drop during the Asian morning Monday: