ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: RBA on hold, Lowe, GDP still to come
Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 5 March 2019
- Brexit - UK trade department cancels business Brexit briefings
- More on US to end preferential trade status for India and Turkey
- How the RBA monetary policy decision statement changed from February to March
- RBA leaves rates on hold, as expected
- Ex PBOC adviser says yuan exchange rate risk is controllable this year
- China official says China did not manipulate the yuan
- Response to the Australian data today - AMP revised GDP forecast to 0% for Q4
- FT recap: China’s services sector slowed markedly in February
- EUR/USD chart … selling pressure, suggesting test of the lower end of trading
- China Caixin/Markit Services PMI (Feb): 51.1 (expected 53.5)
- Australian press - Car sales through February to their lowest level in seven years
- Westpac on Australian GDP 'partial' data, and key uncertainties for GDP data ahead
- More on Mohamed El-Erian's Fed comments (but also an ECB mini preview)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.6998 (vs. yesterday at 6.7049)
- More on Goldman Sachs hiking its gold price forecast (silver too)
- China comments on the yuan, leverage
- Japan Nikkei/Markit Services and Composite PMIs for February
- Australia BoP current account for Q4 2018: AUD -7.2bn (expected AUD -9.2bn)
- More UK consumer spending data: Barclaycard survey weakest on record
- China sets 2019 GDP growth target at 6 - 6.5%
- UK BRC like-for-like retail sales (Feb) -0.1% y/y(expected +0.1%)
- New Zealand data, commodity prices (February): 2.8% m/m (prior +2.1%)
- Goldman Sachs EUR/USD technical analysis update
- Australia, weekly consumer sentiment 114.8 (prior 114.1)
- El Erian says there is a chance the Fed will have to change its dovish stance
- Australia CBA / Markit services PMI for February, final: 48.7 (prelim was 49.3)
- US Treas Sec Mnuchin says debt issuance suspension March 4 through June 5
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 5 March 2019
- Australia - AiG Performance of Services Index for February 44.5 (prior 44.3)
Currencies maintained relatively small ranges here in Asia today with the major focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting for March. The Bank kept the cash rate on hold for the 31st month in a row. In the accompanying statement, Governor Lowe was a little more positive than he has been. He does tend to be a bit that way though, despite the run of data we have been getting. Next up from the RBA is a speech at 2210GMT on Tuesday 5 March (which is just after 9 am Sydney time Wednesday) which will be followed by Q4 GDP data at 0030GMT on 6 March.
Prior to the RBA announcement we had more 'partial' data for the GDP release tomorrow disappointing exports but strong government spending.
Also today was a disappointment on the private survey China February services PMI (see bullets above).
The Australian dollar lost a little ground on the session here, from highs above 0.760 to lows below 0.7070 for a lacklustre range on such an active data day.
NZD/USD has been a loser, down from highs circa 0.6825 to under 0.6790 briefly.It is not the only currency to lose ground against the US dollar on the session here. EUR, GBP, CAD, CHF, yen are all down against the USD to varying extents.
Announcements from China today with the National People's Congress (NPC) underway. Of most note were more stimulus comments, deleveraging more or less on hold for now, tax cuts and efforts to allow the yuan more flexibility and to be held stable (seemingly contradictory goals, but this is China, right?). And, of course, the GDP target for the year, set between 6 and 6.5%.
Still to come:
- Forex options expiries today, Tuesday 5 March 2019
- NZD traders - heads up for the GDT dairy auction due today (Tuesday, London time)
- Lowe speech preview: RBA policy decision - no press conference (there never is), but Lowe speech coming
- Just the numbers: Australian GDP data for Q4 is due tomorrow - what to expect