Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 5 November 2015

  • Former Bank of England economist says China heading for hard landing, zero rates
  • NAB forecasts for Australian GDP: 2015/16 at 2.6% & 2016/17 at 3%
  • RBA's Lowe: Local banks under-reported investment home loans by AUD50 bln
  • Morgan Stanley on Brexit: British growth would plunge to 1% & stocks underperform
  • Today's mid-point reference rate for the yuan (USD/CNY): 6.3381
  • Fed's Fischer: Current US deficits 'pretty respectable' as share of GDP
  • Goldman Sachs on the BoE later, favour EUR/GBP lower (& forecast)
  • Bank of England day: policy, minutes, inflation report, Carney press conference, forecasts
  • Fed's Fischer: Inflation expectations have remained steady
  • BOJ Minutes: members agree inflation trend to continue to improve
  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard will eat his hat if we are anywhere near a global recession
  • Preview of the NFP : "upward revision of September ... October +200K"
  • RBA Governor Stevens: Very accommodative monetary policy likely to stay 4 some time
  • Goldman Sachs: Only the Fed can undo QE, not foreign central banks
  • Comments from Moody's on China outlook: No hard landing
  • China - PBOC training school prof says rising NPL ratio is not scary

A subdued range day pretty much across the major currencies board, with activity again in Chinese equities.

RBA speakers during the session (Governor Stevens and Deputy Governor Lowe) didn't have a big impact on the AUD. Stevens' comments saw it shed a few points but bounce back once it had hit under 0.7330. Its little changed on the session as I update. NZD is flat on the session too (up or down a point or so depending on your start point for the Asian session).

EUR, GBP, CHF are all barely changed also as is the USD/JPY. BOJ Minutes of the October 5/7 meeting had little impact.

We had comments from Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer during the Asian morning, but again the impact was minimal.

The Shanghai Composite has added more than 2.5% (as of writing), with other indices in Asia mostly along for the ride (the ASX a significant laggard, down on the day). The move in China today brings the Shanghai Comp back into a 'bull market' apparently (i.e. up 20% from a low). Unlike yesterday, when we had the (6 months late) story on Shenzen-HK Stock Connect to point the finger at as a catalyst, there was an absence of 'this is why' news stories for the strong showing in Chinese stocks.

Regional equities with Shanghai closed for the lunch break:

  • Shanghai +2.69%
  • Nikkei +1.16%
  • HK +0.23%
  • ASX -1.11%

Still to come:

  • Goldman Sachs on the BoE later, favour EUR/GBP lower (& forecast)
  • Bank of England day: policy, minutes, inflation report, Carney press conference, forecasts