Forex news for Asia trading Friday 8 March 2019
- Japan Vice fin min Asakawa says monitoring FX, ready to respond to volatility
- China trade numbers slipping out, February exports down 16.6% ( +6.6% expected)
- Fitch says China NPC policy targets underscore the challenges to support growth
- NAB calling for two RBA rate cuts in 2019
- More from China's Foreign Minister - China supports Huawei seeking redress
- China official on North Korea - cannot be an immediate resolution
- Recap of Japan Q4 2018 GDP (and looking ahead to a 'wobbly' Q1 2019)
- ANZ on the AUD for the week and month ahead (bearish)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7235 (vs. yesterday at 6.7110)
- Morgan Stanley entered a long GBP/USD position at the NY close
- BAML on what AUD traders are focused on, and what they are missing
- Japan economy minister Motegi says Q4 data showed moderate economic recovery
- Former Trump campaign manager Manafort gets a 47-month sentence
- Japan fin min Aso says the government is not considering any new economic measures
- Japan, final Q4 GDP 0.5% q/q (preliminary was 0.3%)
- Japan January household spending: 2.0% y/y (expected -0.5%)
- Analyst on why the ECB followed the Fed's flip-flopping
- Here's another 'trade of the decade' - EM says BlackRock
- Chinese state-owned firms bought at least 500,000 tonnes of US soybeans on Thursday
- NZ construction activity for Q4: +2.7% q/q (expected 1.0%)
- New Zealand Q4 2018 Manufacturing Activity
- US says needs to see meaningful and verifiable steps on denuclearisation from North Korea soon
- German eco min says Europe wants to avoid trade war with US, but can respond
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 8 March 2019
Asia FX stabilised somewhat after the Draghi drubbing for currencies during Europe and US time and awaiting NFP numbers from the US on Friday.
The early part of the session saw a few data releases (see bullets above) without too much currency impact. NZD and yen both traded a little stronger.
The bigger focus of the session was trade balance data from China, which came in at a huge miss, exports collapsing (do bear in mind the January/February distortions due to the variable timings of the lunar new year holidays ... even still though, exports plunged in February to their biggest drop in 3 years). And don't ignore the plummet in imports also, indicative of a softening in domestic demand. I really should note that data in the weeks (months) preceding have been indicating very poor global trading and economic conditions - PMIs across Asia have been awful.
The trade balance was interesting for another reason, a major wire reported February exports were up 16.6% in yuan terms, a few seconds later correcting that to down 16.6%. If you are looking at your charts and wondering about the AUD/USD spike towards 0.7030 then almost immediate drop to 0.7010, there you go ... When the dust settled AUD was not really much changed, down a little. It had traded a touch stronger for the session, to above 0.7025, gave some back on the NAb RBA announcement and is back near session lows after the Chinese data.
USD/JPY was another mover, losing ground throughout the session and extending the losses after the Chinese data. Not a huge range, 111.65/111.35 or so was pretty much it.
Cable drifted net higher by a few points, EUR/USD ditto but not so much.
Regional equities took their direction from the falls in the US overnight, Chinese shares did not fare well at all (Shanghai Comp chart):
Still to come:
- US data due Friday Nonfarm payroll - preview
- Goldman Sachs February 2019 non-farm payroll preview
- February 2019 non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
- FX options expiries for the 10am NY cut on Friday 8 March 2019
- ICYMI - more data from China coming out over the weekend
- Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at the Asian market opening on Monday
