- RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged at 2.5%; an interest rate rise in September looks likely
- Japan’s retail sales +1.1% YoY
- Brazilian regulators introduce tax on FX derivatives
- UK pay deals increase slightly with public sector fixed but private sector rising
- RBA watcher sees rate rise next week
- Regional stockmarkets 1% lower
- Gold $1616/oz, Oil $97/bbl
- No progress on US debt-ceiling talks with tomorrow looking like D-day
Quiet session in Asia yet again. The market is again unwilling to buy either the USD or the EUR, which certainly limits the choices available.
NZD was again the first mover after the RBNZ rate decision and statement. The headlines after the statement led to some confusion with the NZD first going up, then down. After closer reading, it became fairly clear that a 50 bps rate rise could be on the cards for September and this gave the NZD a boost.
AUD/USD had a fairly quiet session. Dealers were eyeing trailing stops below 1.0990 but consistent buying from option players kept these orders safe. Solid sell orders towards 1.1100 also encouraged traders to sell intraday rallies. Range: 1.1006/45
EUR/USD has been mainly influenced by EUR/JPY selling and these flows drove it below the overnight low at 1.4338. Strong technical support at 1.4310/25 is providing the base for now. Ranges: 1.4329/78
USD/JPY is having trouble breaking back above 78.00, which is a good indicator of the strength of the downtrend. Verbal intervention from politicians and/or BOJ is having no impact. Range: 77.73/78.02
Cable 1.6312/43, EUR/GBP .8780/.8804, EUR/CHF 1.1491/1.1523, USD/CHF .8005/22
