Forex and Bitcoin news for Europe morning trading Tuesday 17 April 2018
- Bank of Canada monetary policy decision due soon - all the previews in one place
- Italy's President has asked Senate speaker if can form Centre-right/5-star govt
- Analyst responses to the UK inflation data coming in: "undermining" May hike case
- Iran says it is switching from USD to the Euro for its foreign transactions
- Eurozone March inflation (final) 1.3% y/y (prelim was 1.4%)
- GBP slipping further after the inflation report misses estimates
- More on the 'no new sanctions on Russia' story
- UK data: March CPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%)
- Barclays: "Expectations for JPY depreciation strengthen again"
- EU's Tusk repeats threat that EU could retaliate against US tariff moves
- US fixed interest yields note for early Europe trade
The wraps are a bit time unconstrained for the next few days - the Asia one was a bit later than normal and this one is a bit earlier.
Here we go ...
GBP was the big mover. March inflation data
- came in lower than estimates,
- lower than the previous month,
- well under Bank of England MPC forecasts,
- and at a one-year low
(got all that?). Markets had pencilled in a Bank of England rate hike in May and were reaching for the pens to lock it in, but the result on inflation in March has raised a question or two. While it seems May is still on (based on market pricing) there are also doubts about the path ahead after that, along the lines that the rest of 2018 will be a BoE on hold.
GBP/USD is around a big figure lower on the session. GBP is not the only area of weakness against the big dollar, though: AUD, NZD, CAd are all down (not to the same extent)
USD/JPY has done little, but it is is off its Asia session high above 107.35.
EUR was blown about in a small sort of range. The opening move into early Europe was a lower EUR/USD, market interest focused on wider spread between US and German rates, weighing on the EUR. There was some retracement and then EUzone inflation data (final, March) came out lower than the early 'flash' reading (back in the first week of April). EUR/USD dropped back to its session low, and just a little under but follow through was not there, core inflation held on to be unchanged from the preliminary estimate providing some support. EUR/USD also got a wee kick up from news crossing (citing Iranian Press TV) that Iran had switched to the EUR (from the USD) for its foreign transactions. The country has been preferring EUR fo oil payments so this further move is not too much of a surprise. No love lost between Iran and the US, is there?
And, note further on EUR/USD .... all this happened in a small range only.
Movement in the ruble today on the news that the US will not be imposing additional sanctions on Russia (see bullets above).
Still to come:
Bank of Canada preview: A meeting with global implications
In the new Asia day:
