Forex news from the European morning session - 11 June 2019
Headlines:
- ECB's Kazimir says does not see a recession or deflation ahead
- Wilbur Ross: Definitive China trade deal cannot be made at G20 summit
- BOE's Broadbent: Can't say which way rates will go if no-deal Brexit happens
- BOE's Saunders: Monetary policy implications from no-deal Brexit could go either way
- BOE's Vlieghe: Data since May has been disappointing, downside risks have intensified
- US May NFIB small business optimism index 105.0 vs 102.0 expected
- BOE's Saunders: UK could see more rate hikes if Brexit is smooth
- Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence -3.3 vs 2.5 expected
- UK April average weekly earnings +3.1% vs +3.0% 3m/y expected
- ECB's Rehn: Central bank could strengthen forward guidance, cut rates, relaunch QE if needed
- China says if US insists on escalating trade tensions, China will respond with firm resolve
- Italy's Salvini says tax cuts, growth are key to avoid disciplinary action
- Italy's Salvini says that meeting with Conte went well
Markets:
- GBP leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities higher; E-minis up 0.4%
- US 10-year yields up 2.1 bps to 2.169%
- Gold down 0.5% to $1,321.88
- WTI up 0.9% to $53.76
- Bitcoin down 2.0% to $7,781
The pound was the notable mover in the European morning today as it gained on the back of more solid labour market data, which is defying slowing economic conditions as we saw yesterday. Wages held up while the unemployment rate held steady and that gave the pound a brief reprieve amid a mix of BOE speakers during the session.
Cable rose from 1.2690 to a high of 1.2728 but gains slowly wilted during the session as once again, the data is very much doing little to convince of significant BOE repricing with Brexit and economic uncertainty still at large. That saw cable retreat back to near the 1.2700 handle now ahead of North American trading.
Other major currencies were more steady with the dollar holding near flat levels against the euro in limited and narrow trading for the most part. The yen did move lower slightly as risk sentiment improved a little during the session with equities and Treasury yields inching higher. That saw USD/JPY push up from 108.60 to 108.70 levels currently.
Amid the improvement in the risk mood, oil gained while gold fell further as market focus continues to stay on global trade tensions for the time being. That didn't help the kiwi though with the currency languishing once again, erasing gains at the start of the month amid a firmer US dollar on the session.
Looking ahead, I wouldn't expect much pound strength to come about but if it does, it'll be on the back of some position covering more than a change in market sentiment. With the Tory leadership contest beginning, Brexit worries will once again come into focus and that for me is reason enough to keep selling the rallies in the quid.
Other than that, expect risk sentiment to stay a factor for markets amid US-China, US-Mexico trade tensions as well as focus on the Fed with a couple of US data points throughout the week, which will culminate in the release of the retail sales report on Friday.
