Forex news from the European trading session - 13 June 2018
Headlines:
- Saudi Arabia said to have floated several plans for higher OPEC oil output
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 8 June -1.5% vs +4.1% prior
- Russia to propose deal to increase oil output in line with quotas - report
- DIW cuts German growth forecasts for 2018, 2019
- Eurozone Q1 employment change +0.4% vs +0.3% q/q prior
- Eurozone April industrial production -0.9% vs -0.7% m/m expected
- UK May CPI +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected
- IEA says that Iran, Venezuela oil output could slump by almost 30%
- German economy ministry says that economic upswing will continue
- Switzerland Q1 industrial output WDA +9.0% vs +8.7% y/y prior
- Switzerland May PPI +0.2% vs +0.4% m/m prior
- Spain May final CPI +0.9% vs +0.9% m/m prelim
- Trump expected to impose tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as this Friday - report
Markets:
- NZD leads on the day, GBP lags behind
- European equities mostly higher, Italy MIB leads gains
- Gold down by 0.09% to $1,294.76
- WTI down by 0.53% to $66.01
- US 10-year yields down by 1 bps to 2.95%
- Bitcoin down by 1.41% to $6,440
It was a slow start to the session as markets were mostly range-bound ahead of European trading. It continued that way into the opening of the cash equity market, as the dollar inched ahead but the slightest bit.
But the gains were short lived as things quickly turned back to the snooze fest it was before again. GBP was the main mover on the session though. GBP/USD fell ahead of the UK inflation report from around 1.3350 levels to 1.3330 prior to the data release.
The inflation report didn't offer too much but the pair still fell to a low of 1.3312 before trading around 1.3320-30 levels. Sellers tried for a move lower and the pair touched a low today of 1.3308 but as the dollar was offered the pair climbed back up to 1.3330 levels now.
Ranges remain subdued for the most part, and EUR/USD started the session around 1.1730-40 levels before climbing to a high of 1.1770 as the dollar weakened late in the session.
USD/CAD and USD/CHF were mostly range-bound on the day, as is USD/JPY which traded around 110.40-50 levels for the majority of European trading with little catalyst to spark any moves.
AUD and NZD are making a bit of a late surge, as the two are trading near session highs for the day against the USD now. Although, as with most of the other major currencies, the ranges are still relatively narrow.
All eyes now turn to the FOMC meeting later. A rate hike today is a virtual slam dunk, but the real question is will we see a more hawkish Fed in a time when EM/global risks are increasing and the yield curve continuing to flatten? Will Powell change the communique moving forward so as the Fed won't be held hostage by the market with regards to rate hikes?
Get your pop corns ready. It's going to be one of the more "exciting" ones.
