Forex and Bitcoin news for Uk and European trading Thursday 19 April 2018

The focus for the session was on UK retail sales but there has plenty else going on.

EUR/USD had an early pop, taking out Asian highs (and some short stops losses) on a move toward 1.24 ..... where resistance awaited. It has subsequently come off 40-odd points and is just above session lows (of an admittedly small range) as I post.

We had some big moves in European fixed interest:

  • The German 10 year bund yield is closing in on its biggest rise in 2 months
  • While French 10yr bond yield up also ( approaching its biggest jump since early January)

Inflation expectations in the euro zone are at a 5 week high (using the five-year, five-year, breakeven forward rate (to around 1.7% , up from a low around 1.67% earlier in the month) - higher oil prices boosts the outlook for a pick up in price pressures (oil rose during the session, WTI above 69.20 at one stage before coming back though)

UK retail sales (March) came in at a bad miss on already low expectations. GBP/USD was marked lower, bounced a little and is mid-range for the session (more or less) as i update. And a small range here also, BTW.

USD/JPY has also been confined to a small range and without much as a fresh driver either way.

AUD (see the Asia wrap for data and commodity price movement impact) came back from highs above 0.7810 to be under the figure as I update. NZD (again, see Asia wrap for info on data etc.) is on its session lows.

Gold was hit with sellers, dropping to circa 1346 from highs earlier above 1354. Hard to pin a reason on this, but some stops under 1348 were a contributor.

Added - as I posted USD/CHF spiked, taking EUR/CHF to just shy of 1.2. No fresh news to drive it, stops above 0.9700 in USD/CHF triggered.... and then USD/CHF came back down. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has recovered all of tis losses after the retail sales data