Forex news from the European trading session - 28 June 2018
Headlines:
- Ireland PM Varadkar says 'no meaningful progress' on Irish border talks
- EU's Malmstrom says not in a trade war yet, but moving towards one
- Australia's parliament passes anti-foreign interference laws
- Italy June preliminary CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Eurozone June final consumer confidence -0.5 vs -0.5 prelim
- North Rhine Westphalia June CPI +0.1% vs +0.4% m/m prior
- Baden-Wuerttemberg June CPI +0.2% vs +0.5% m/m prior
- BOJ's Wakatabe says that biggest reason for low inflation is deflationary mindset
- ECB says Eurozone economic expansion remains solid, broad-based
- Hesse June CPI 0.0% vs +0.5% m/m prior
- Bavaria June CPI +0.2% vs +0.5% m/m prior
- Brandenburg June CPI 0.0% vs +0.7% m/m prior
- More from Merkel: Migration policy could be the make-or-break for the EU
- Spain June preliminary CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Saxony June CPI +0.1% vs +0.5% m/m prior
- Germany July GfK consumer confidence 10.7 vs 10.6 expected
Markets:
- CAD leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities lower
- Gold up 0.05% to $1,252.88
- WTI up 0.08% to $72.82
- US 10-year yields up 0.9 bps to 2.835%
- Bitcoin down 0.65% to $6,085
The session started off with the dollar well bid as cable broke below the 1.3100 handle and USD/JPY moving towards the highs for the day. While all that was going on, Chinese stocks continue to get routed and the Shanghai Composite closed the day nearly 1% lower.
But nonetheless, it didn't deter risk sentiment all too much. The break in cable sparked further bids in the dollar sending EUR/USD to a low of 1.1527 as well. The dollar index touched a high of 95.53 on the day - the same as it did last week, which is the 2018 high posted so far. And thereafter, the greenback started to take a tumble.
That helped most major currencies pare losses against the dollar and push higher on the day. And that pretty much sums up all the action during the session, along with the usual month-end flows like the Buba trade.
In terms of data, we saw Germany states release their inflation figures which were a tad softer than that of May - which should also be what the national reading reflects later. Apart from that, there wasn't any key releases during the session that caused any sudden movements in the market.
Trading today so far has been a lot about the flows and the technical levels. The dollar moved to highs and posted a double-top pattern, and the rejection there is why we're seeing the greenback fall further as the session moves along.
Looking at individual pairs, EUR/USD started the day around 1.1560 levels before tracking lower to 1.1527 and then made its way back now to near the 1.1600 handle as the dollar gains evaporate. Cable saw a somewhat similar bounce but not as dramatic, falling to a low of 1.3066 before now closing back in on the 1.3100 handle.
The loonie was the other big gainer on the day in a follow through of yesterday's move and higher oil prices. USD/CAD started the day pushing to a high of 1.3352 but as the dollar faltered, the pair now trades at session lows of 1.3277.
The only other major currency that has failed to catch a break on the day has been the kiwi as NZD/USD continues to hold below the 2017 low of 0.6781. The RBNZ kept rates on hold earlier today and doesn't look like they are in any hurry to move any time soon with regards to rates - and risks are fairly balanced on a rate hike or rate cut.
The US session later will see the third reading for US Q1 GDP, and expect more volatility to come with month-end, quarter-end, and half-year-end flows all in the mix.
