Forex news from the European morning session - 29 March 2019
Headlines:
- DUP maintains their position that they cannot back May's deal in a vote later
- Brexit: Are we going to get a close vote later?
- Italy March preliminary CPI +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y expected
- UK February mortgage approvals 64.3k vs 65.0k expected
- UK Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q prelim
- Canada reportedly considering new ways to retaliate against US tariffs
- BOJ says it will leave bond-buying operations unchanged for the month of April
- DUP's Wilson confirms that party will oppose May in the vote later today
- France March preliminary CPI +0.8% vs +0.9% m/m expected
- US and China said to be poring over details of text to end trade war
- Germany February retail sales +0.9% vs -1.0% m/m expected
Markets:
- GBP leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities higher; E-minis up 0.4%
- US 10-year yields up 2 bps to 2.415%
- Gold up 0.2% to $1,292.31
- WTI up 1.4% to $60.12
- Bitcoin up 2.1% to $4,094
No surprises as the pound was the highlight of the morning with Brexit headlines stealing the spotlight once again. All the focus is on May's withdrawal agreement vote later and sentiment surrounding it swung around and dragged the pound along with it.
Cable began the session around 1.3060-70 as the pound held steady since overnight trading but fell as London traders came in betting on May to lose the vote later. That saw price fall to a low of 1.3004 before settling around 1.3020.
But as rumours came flooding in on ERG softening, Labour lawmakers jumping ship and the likes of Dominic Raab also potentially changing their stance, that helped the pound soar with cable rising to a high of 1.3136 before settling near 1.3100 currently.
Renewed hopes of May's withdrawal agreement passing also helped to ease investors' nerves on the day as risk assets improved with bond yields and equities rising in the past hour as well. That is keeping USD/JPY underpinned at 110.75-90 levels throughout the session.
Meanwhile, the dollar itself fluctuated for the most part having gained some ground mid-way through the European morning before giving that all up as we approach London midday. EUR/USD moved to a three-week low of 1.1210 before rising back up now to trade above 1.1230 ahead of US trading.
The aussie and kiwi remain underpinned as both currencies are buoyed from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks. Both currencies are ending the session near the same levels as they started off with against the dollar.
Looking ahead, expect plenty more volatility to follow in pound trading as we get closer towards the vote later at 1430 GMT. Also, risk sentiment will be a key theme to watch out for once again in North American trading so be wary of the movement in bond yields as well.
