Forex news from the European trading session - 4 November 2020
Headlines:
- The latest count in Michigan sees Trump's lead narrowing
- US election: What is the state of play now?
- Wisconsin vote count starts to favour Biden
- UK October final services PMI 51.4 vs 52.3 prelim
- Eurozone October final services PMI 46.9 vs 46.2 prelim
- Trump: We will go to the Supreme Court, wants all voting to stop
- <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/trump-still-leads-in-georgia-with-91-of-estimated-votes-reported-20201104" target="_blank" title="Trump 50.6% vs Biden 48.1% The gap has narrowed and no major networks are calling the state just yet. The NYT election needle still favours Biden to pip it in the end by Trump still leads in Georgia with 91% of estimated votes reported
- Biden appears to have won NE-2; which means there won't be a tie
- Joe Biden: We are on track to win this election
Markets:
- CHF leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities higher; E-minis up 1.4%
- US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 0.809%
- Gold flat at $1,908.70
- WTI up 2.3% to $38.55
- Bitcoin up 0.5% to $13,807
The market was largely more choppy as investors continue to digest the closely contested US election race, with three key swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) seeing delays to their vote count due to overwhelming mail-in ballots.
Equities sentiment fluctuated throughout with S&P 500 futures moving back and forth between gains and losses, similarly for European stocks as well.
The dollar was also more choppy initially but held on to gains for the most part before slipping in the latter stages as the latest vote counts in Wisconsin and Michigan are starting to shift in favour of Biden after mail-in ballots are accounted for.
That also saw stocks push higher with S&P 500 futures now up 1.4% and Nasdaq futures are up by 3.1%. The dollar weakened with EUR/USD climbing from 1.1670 to 1.1730 while GBP/USD managed a push from a low of 1.2915 to 1.3050.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD also pared its earlier decline in a move from 0.7060 to 0.7160 while gold also managed to push back above $1,900 to more flat levels now.
That said, there is still plenty of uncertainty hanging in the air and it is not over until the fat lady sings. There is also the Senate race to watch out for and Republicans are likely to come out on top on that front.
This means that a divided Congress is certainly a possibility and more gridlock in Washington may not spell much optimism surrounding stimulus plans.
The bond market is reflecting that sentiment with Treasuries staying bid throughout the session with 10-year yields down by 9 bps to 0.809% currently.
All eyes will stay on how things shape up in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin so that will keep the market guessing somewhat until later today.
